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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scratchmyback who wrote (26138)	8/27/2002 3:39:06 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 196694

scratchmyback, << if WCDMA really is that late, isn´t the whole WCDMA bubble going to burst already on September the 26th???! That is when Sonera in Finland plans to launch their WCDMA network >> Based on what Jorma Ollila stated on the last earnings CC (if I interpreted him correctly), Sonera is going to be doing a service launch, not a full scale commercial launch. The Nokia phones (that Anssi had in his pocket at CeBit)will be deployed to friendly users. Essentially the launch will be like the SKT "commercial" launch in October 2000, when one handset model was available and only a fraction of the committed 20,000 units was available at launch time, and those were in the hands of friendly users. This is in contrast to 3G's plans (or intended plans) and there has been no mention that I know of the Nokia pocket phone being used (at least initially 3G if in fact 3G does do a real "commercial launch". Candidly, I think that the 3G UK launch with GSM GPRS roaming on mmO2 and Motorola and NEC dual-mode handsets is going to tell us a lot more about where WCDMA is at than the Sonera launch, and that is if a real honest to goodness commercial launch with handsets for sale in retail outlets takes place. Regardless, GSM/3GSM handoff and vendor to vendor and carrier to carrier interoperability is key, and as always that will take time to work through. Best, - Eric -

To: scratchmyback who wrote (26138)	8/27/2002 3:40:46 PM
From: amseybold	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196694

If I were a betting man--which I am would say that the "launch" will be a soft launch at best--and that all of the problems you have described and more will plague this system--please note that I have been wrong before and will be again--but in this case I don't think so. Also, if it does launch watch the uptake of it closely--I don't think that the first three or four months will see grow like KDDI's in Japan.

To: scratchmyback who wrote (26138)	8/27/2002 3:54:15 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196694

The whole history of WCDMA is one of delays, costs that are insane, and unproven as well as inferior technology. Nokia and Sonera had originally set January '02 as the goal for launching wCDMA in Finland. I don't recall any "pre-commercial" or other language being attached to the original announcement, and got the impression that it was to be a full-blown commercial launch. Naturally, there were no handsets. The date then was moved to March, now it's "precommercial" in September. We'll see. I think that Nokia is supposed to provide the WCDMA ASICs. If it is true to form, they'll be a messy dog's breakfast. Smart to launch "pre-commercial" in 9/02 so that all the bugs--and there will be many--can get worked out of the ASICs, networks, etc. It'll be fun to watch. The cabal haters around here are going to have a blast.