Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (4740)	8/27/2002 6:39:39 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

And I always believe that we will be in a double dip sooner than everyone recognize. Would you still be a housing bear in the event of no double dip? Thats the problem I have with others that are expecting a decline in real estate- most are on the trading/bear threads and are also expecting a double dip... I am not. fyi, bay area RE...Real estate watchers hold breath on slowdown It may be summer lull or signal cooling trend sfgate.com

To: larry who wrote (4740)	8/27/2002 7:02:56 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Larry, RE:"I brought up Tokyo REIT bubble because everyone, even most of the brokers have never heard of the story, or the severity how the housing prices can drop. I also want to remind people that the housing price can remain high well after the stock market peaked. In the case of Tokyo, it peaked 3 years after the Nikkei peaked and went on a death spiral for 6 years and then remained in the bottom for 3 years (still counting). And I brought up AG because I want to point out that the majority won't believe that a bubble is there until after it's burst (even someone as smart as AG)." All very good points. OTOH, when asked about this the expert talking heads on CNBC just say "it can't happen here because we have a more dynamic economy than Japan". If it does happen those talking head experts will be no where to be found or will have changed their tune after the fact.

To: larry who wrote (4740)	8/27/2002 8:28:33 PM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

<<Lots of people that I personally know who bought houses recently are stretching themselves to the limit. I am in my early 30s, and feel that there is a huge generation gap between us as far as spending is concerned. They can not afford to have one of the couples getting laid off. And they have heavy credit card debts and even need to pay tuition fee loan. These guys are betting on making 100 k in the next two years or so from their houses and one way bet always ends up in bad situation. I have lots of friends who live in CA and NJ suddenly found themselves in bad economic situation after either the husband or wife got laid off. Cost cutting can only help you to a certain level. If the housing prices drops significantly, and they need to relocate, they will be in trouble.>> ______ Larry, this says more about your friends and their credit-happy spending habits than it does about real estate. People should not go out on a limb to buy real estate....they can get killed, no matter what the market does. So forget the friends, look at real estate for what it is and what it does, and prosper by approaching it more carefully than your friends apparently have. (This is friendly advice from one who has nothing to gain from giving it to you--and, by the way, don't bet too much stock market money the wrong way simply because this friend-thing has colored your outlook on real estate)