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To: CYC who wrote (51474)	8/28/2002 12:10:46 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

No problem CYC. You raise some good points. The thing I fear here is a whipsaw move back to the upside that will kill option premium. You see, I have to trade both price and time with options. What would hurt my puts is some sideways action. These puts were purchased thinking that the tech low would be in by now. On volatility breakouts to the downside, I unload some of the puts while they still have lots of time premium. The best candidates are anything close in time and that which is furthest from the money. I will maintain what I have short (almost entirely QQQ Oct's closer to the money) and even try to catch this whipsaw I am looking for with a wiggle long. However, I will not get rid of my remaining puts because I could be wrong about this whipsaw and miss the move to new lows in tech that I have been waiting for. As regards the fear and greed posts, well, the decision that I mis-timed the tech move was made over the last run up. That decision was made, plain and simple. I will not now switch to the other side and just hope that we head straight to new lows. I must execute my decision when price is going my way, even though the greed and hope I feel is telling me to hold steady.

To: CYC who wrote (51474)	8/28/2002 12:18:35 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Here's a better example. I help my partner manage his own account. He got caught looking the wrong way two weeks ago and was holding QQQ September $23 puts that he bought for $1.05 (or thereabouts). Now, in the rally these poor things went as low as .25 (ouch). So, just a while ago I phoned him and advised him to exit these. I believe he got .80 and .85 for these. That is an excellent exit/save. If the market were go/sideways up from here it could easily be another 6 or 7 trading days before we get back to these levels. Well, on a Sep put, by then he is losing serious money in time premium. If we returned to QQQ $23.70 in 7 trading days, there is no way he is getting .85 for these things. He was wrong on the trade. Now he has to repair. Just hoping that it dives to the lows and makes all the Sep put holders turn out to be geniuses is not the odds play.