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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kaka who wrote (170763)	8/28/2002 3:34:54 PM
From: OLDTRADER	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

RE:Kaka-I think market might just regain it's last Thursday's (1426)level which would mean 8% in the next 2 days-wild and crazy call--- but what the hell it may occur.----Shorts will not want to go home open over the long weekend.

To: kaka who wrote (170763)	8/28/2002 5:54:21 PM
From: Herschel Rubin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

It is unfortunate my analysis of the forthcoming intensification of HPQ vs. DELL price wars has put you complacent DELLHEADS on the defensive, but the impending price wars have been mentioned by others as well. For example: thestreet.com On the conference call, president Michael Capellas said consumer demand had been "weaker than expected in all regions." Commercial sales had been relatively stronger, he added, though they had also declined. "Clearly we're not pleased with the operating loss" of nearly $200 million in the PC division, he said, saying the company would push to gain share in the small and medium business market. "There are only two world-class competitors, H-P and Dell, and we will see them become even more competitive." But that won't be easy. "In the PC business, the retail inventories are still over eight weeks," noted Kevin Hunt, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners. "They're going to have to get down to five or six weeks to get profitable in that business and have a healthy PC market. That will be an area to watch over next few months." Moreover, if demand doesn't pick up much around the holidays, "there could be a lot of price wars at Christmas time," he said. _________________________________________________________ [Note in the foregoing, that is not TheStreet.com putting the "price wars" word out for all to see, it is Kevin Hunt, an analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners. I don't like TheStreet.com either.] For you newbies to the investment world, when there are intense price wars, there are no winners. Maybe DELL might gain some market share, or maybe HPQ will gain some back, but for both competitors, their margins will suffer and so will their stock prices. There are so many more compelling investment candidates in the markets than DELL & HPQ with their shrinking profit margins and shrinking markets. With DELL's refusal to expense options and with progressively decreasing book value, DELL is truly a house of cards lashing out into new markets such as printers and PDA's (laughable) with uncertain results. (Morons, ask yourself where have all those profits gone from the past 10 years of "excellence?" Book value is only $1.77 per share, for Christ's sake. Certainly, profits have not gone to retained earnings where they rightfully belong). Furthermore, is DELL looking at a 40% growth rate in the next year? Of course not. Then why is DELL trading at a near 40 PE multiple??? At $0.79 estimated EPS for the current FY and with an estimated 15% growth rate, DELL should be trading at a PE of 15, which would translate into a true value of $11.80. Not that I'm saying DELL will trade down to that level soon, but that's about where DELL should be based on forward growth & earnings prospects. Of course, if the FASB requires options expensing, DELL's current price would represent a bloated PE well north of 60! A bubble waiting to be popped once transparent accounting is required... Good luck longs.