3G infrastructure lead hotly contested
By Darrell Dunn, EBN Sep 25, 2002 (10:32 AM)
URL: ebnews.com
As designs begin to roll out for next-generation infrastructure equipment, two major DSP vendors are already claiming they have secured enough wins to claim the top spot and generate revenue of more than $1 billion in the 3G market over the next few years.
Texas Instruments Inc. executives said the Dallas-based chip manufacturer has already laid the necessary groundwork to achieve dominance, citing the company's aggressive acquisition strategy and deployment of its TMS320C6x DSP family. And Analog Devices Inc. claims its TigerSHARC DSP has already gained as much as a 50% share of current 3G infrastructure designs.
“We missed the market in 2G,” said David Shepard, general manager of wireless infrastructure products at TI. “We were very focused on handsets and not on infrastructure. We have significantly increased our penetration [in 2.5G and 3G infrastructure equipment], and we have the potential, with a couple of sockets yet to be awarded, to have a clean sweep of the next phase of 3G deployment.”
Kevin Leary, product line director at Analog Devices' wireless infrastructure group in Norwood, Mass., is just as confident.
“I'm very satisfied with our design position,” Leary said. “TI is our major competitor, but we would disagree about who owns the most important customers. We think we've got the lion's share of opportunity. Clearly, [Analog Devices] is relying on TigerSHARC and the 3G market to be an important driver for revenue going forward. Frankly, given the investment that both we and TI are putting into this, it has to be a [multibillion-dollar market] to validate our efforts.”
Both companies are edging out Motorola Inc.'s Semiconductor Products Sector (SPS) and Agere Systems Inc., which were the dominant DSP players in 2G infrastructure equipment, said Will Strauss, an analyst at Forward Concepts Co., Tempe, Ariz.
“TI was a distant No. 3 [in 2G systems],” Strauss said. “But the company has been driven, and they do see that some of their competition is in a weak position. TI is in the strongest position at the moment.” Kurt Hoff, president and general manager of SPS' C-Port Network Processor Division, said the company is finding design wins for its network processor solution in 3G infrastructure equipment, and cautioned that the long-term winners in the infrastructure market are yet to be determined.
“As far as wins and losses in the 3G market in DSP, it's always easy for the guys outside looking in to talk about how they are kicking the fanny of the person who has the existing market share,” Hoff said. “We now have design wins in four of the top six wireless network infrastructure players (for the C-Port network processor).” According to Forward Concepts, the semiconductor total available market for wireless infrastructure, including DSPs, microprocessors, FPGAs, ASICs, power amplifiers, RF, and data converters, will reach about $3.5 billion this year, down from $3.8 billion a year ago. The market is expected to grow to $3.7 billion in 2003 and $4.4 billion in 2005.
Both TI and Analog Devices have aimed a variety of components, such as RF, DSP, and analog, at the infrastructure market, and TI has made five acquisitions since 1999, including Burr-Brown. TI introduced the TMS320C6203 in 1999 for use in basestations, then began shipping the TMS320C6416 late last year. The 'C6416 is a 600MHz device that also integrates Viterbi and turbo co-processors specifically designed for the infrastructure market, Shepard said. The company plans to begin sampling a 720MHz version in the second quarter of 2003 and a multicore version in early 2004, he said.
The TS101 version of TigerSHARC is shipping at 250MHz, but has benchmarked performance equal to a 600MHz 'C6416, Leary said. Analog Devices plans to announce higher-performance members of the TigerSHARC family over the next several months, he said. A key growth driver for silicon suppliers will be the deployment of new basestations and mobile switching centers to handle 3G cellular networks. Although there has been some market disappointment in the rollout of 3G, both TI and Analog Devices believe the technology is on a relatively strong ramp.
TI projects commercial deployment of 3G networks worldwide by the start of 2004 and mass deployment by 2005.
“It took 10 years for GSM to go from zero to where it is now-[the dominant cellular standard],” Shepard said. “With all the hype, a lot of people involved in the market thought 3G was going to happen at an unrealistic growth curve. But saying 3G won't happen is like saying the Internet wouldn't happen.”
Strauss said new features, including color screens, data services, and gaming, should provide an impetus for handset upgrades beginning next year. “There's been no real reason for anyone to upgrade to date,” he said. “New growth will be a combination of better cell phones and the services to go with them. The gaming market for high-end cell phones looks pretty exciting, and a lot of people are wanting to get into that market.” Leary said Analog Devices originally doubted the viability of data services for 3G handsets, but has since seen evidence of increased demand.
“We're seeing that there's plenty of enthusiasm for 3G,” he said. “It may have been pushed out a little, but in general there's quite a bit of optimism within the wireless infrastructure community. Early on we said voice would be the only driver, but that point of view has been modified, as there has been increased interest in data-only options with 3G equipment.” |
