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To: UnBelievable who wrote (51619)	8/28/2002 6:46:53 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

because that represents a close higher than last week, and that would be 6 up weeks in a row. if that happens the odds are stacked greatly in favor of the bulls for a higher close two weeks later. lower, and you are looking at very good odds of a lower close a week later. All kind off moot tho...check this out...maybe this time will be different?<g> (not sure i agree with the dataset parameters tho as being totally objective)this is from a trial subscription to markethistory.com that i'm fixing on dumping any day now Let The Good Times Roll 8/27/2002 By Michael Sokolow Both the Dow and the S&P 500 were up for the 5th consecutive week after having hit 1 year lows. Q: What has happened over the ensuing months when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 (SPX) posted weekly gains for 5 consecutive weeks, having been at 1 year lows within the previous 2 months? A: We have seen this price action in the S&P 8 times prior to Friday’s close. On every occasion, 4 weeks later the index was higher by an average of nearly 5%, 5 months later by an average of 8.85% and 1 year later in was higher by an average whopping 35.9%. The Dow has seen it happen 7 times. 4 weeks later it was higher every time by an average of 5.311%, 9 months later by an average of 23.35% and 1 year later by an average of 33.617%. Let variable values: theSec = SPX Date Day w+4 m+5 m+9 m+12 03/23/1928 Fri 2.982 8.307 24.228 36.049 08/12/1932 Fri 25.000 3.571 29.000 51.286 05/03/1935 Fri 1.699 20.594 52.017 47.240 06/20/1947 Fri 4.551 1.121 -5.541 11.873 07/15/1949 Fri 3.794 12.873 21.680 14.295 10/23/1953 Fri 0.370 9.076 24.476 31.951 11/11/1966 Fri 0.244 10.361 16.122 12.534 04/16/1982 Fri 1.027 4.914 25.546 35.904 08/23/2002 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN Avg 4.958 8.852 23.441 30.142 AvgPos 4.958 8.852 27.581 30.142 AvgNeg NaN NaN -5.541 NaN PctPos 100.000 100.000 87.500 100.000 PctNeg 0.000 0.000 12.500 0.000 Maximum 25.000 20.594 52.017 51.286 Minimum 0.244 1.121 -5.541 11.873 StdDev 8.250 6.093 15.812 15.610 ZStat 0.601 1.453 1.482 1.931 Variance 68.065 37.119 250.034 243.669 9 Occurrences Let variable values: theSec = DJIA Date Day w+4 m+5 m+9 m+12 08/12/1932 Fri 20.726 0.111 30.154 54.445 05/29/1942 Fri 1.646 12.510 28.579 39.948 07/22/1949 Fri 3.799 13.952 22.695 18.977 10/23/1953 Fri 0.258 8.622 24.748 30.243 03/06/1970 Fri 0.985 -7.450 4.073 14.523 01/10/1975 Fri 8.063 25.149 25.064 38.304 04/16/1982 Fri 1.704 8.718 28.152 38.881 08/23/2002 Fri NaN NaN NaN NaN Avg 5.311 8.802 23.352 33.617 AvgPos 5.311 11.510 23.352 33.617 AvgNeg NaN -7.450 NaN NaN PctPos 100.000 85.714 100.000 100.000 PctNeg 0.000 14.286 0.000 0.000 Maximum 20.726 25.149 30.154 54.445 Minimum 0.258 -7.450 4.073 14.523 StdDev 7.282 10.386 8.884 13.625 ZStat 0.729 0.847 2.628 2.467 Variance 53.029 107.869 78.933 185.642 8 Occurrences

To: UnBelievable who wrote (51619)	8/29/2002 2:15:52 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

UB, It's interesting to me that most of the on-topic posts seem to paint a similar picture, whether or not it is a picture. I posted the following post, and didn't get a single response: Message 17910535 Clearly, we could be in a wave 4 down and getting ready for a wave 5 up. Actually, I believe this would fit into AA's scenario 3. The funny part of this e-wave stuff is that you never really seem to know where we are until the next move down. The funny part of it all is that long term I'm about as negative as reaper. I just think that folks are missing the Tommybear scenario that has proven so accurate. It just unfolds a little slower than we would we would like in this fast moving world. Berney