To: carranza2 who wrote (21981 ) 8/29/2002 7:09:40 PM From: Eric L Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 34857 re: Andy on Wireless Data >> Driving Data Home Andrew M. Seybold Wireless Outlook Newsletter 28 August 2002Who Will Drive Data Services? Okay, Sprint PCS is online with its Vision data services, some really neat phones and support for Java. Verizon is offering BREW services, Nextel has chosen Java and Cingular, T-Mobile (VoiceStream) and AT&T Wireless are still mostly in the WAP camp but moving toward Java. My question is who will provide the continuing new content that will keep wireless data users coming back for more? After a while, customers will tire of the same old stuff and will want more, different types of applications as well as access to different types of content. The immediate answer is that Qualcomm will be assisting developers to write new BREW apps, and the Java community, including Sun, will be working with developers to write new applets for its platform. This is one part of the equation where looking toward i-mode and other Asian services might pay off. NTT DoCoMo has a large number of "approved" sites that can be accessed via i-mode and there are more than three times as many sites that are not on the official NTT DoCoMo list that can be accessed via i-mode. These sites provide literally thousands of applications and millions of bytes of content. The only issue is how i-mode users find these sites and determine that they contain applications and/or content that they want. In any event, the result is that i-mode customers continue to use data bytes every month because there is an almost unlimited amount of content to be had. How will this work in the U.S.? Will Qualcomm be able to keep fresh, new, applications and content coming? How about the Java community? Once the initial fascination with data services has worn off, will customers continue to use the same number of minutes or megabytes of data as they did during their infatuation? Will wireless users become like computer users, settling in on a few applications that they really need and not bothering with more? Or will they become wireless surfers and seek new and different information while wandering the Streets of San Francisco? We Just Don't Know At this point, all of the data offerings are pretty light--a few games here, a bunch of ring tones, some images and perhaps access to email. Once we get past what there is, who will provide us with information that will keep us hooked and keep the data bits and bytes flowing for wireless operators? Obviously, the BREW and Java folks say they will make sure there is always a new supply of applications and information. They will keep developers working on applications for their platforms and as they learn more about what customers really want, they will give it to them. Does this mean that wireless operators, the BREW community and the Java community will have to keep adding more and more content? Does this mean that as more content becomes available it will be harder and harder to find? Certainly there will be Web sites where we can go (from a desktop) to learn about what is new out there. There will be ads telling us about the latest Tiger Woods game that we can download and play against people on other networks and even in other parts of the world. But how are we going to sort though all of this information and all of these Web sites and find what we're looking for? Google for Wireless? I don't think so, we just don't have the time or the inclination to do a search and then try to find the one Web site out of dozens that has exactly what we want and need. My bet is that we have already seen the beginnings of the successful information plays in this country and that it will be a mix of voice and data services that will pertain directly to us. Have a clue yet? I think that the deal MTV made with Virgin Mobile is the wave of the future. Affinity groups offer a powerful way to find information users want and need and make it easier for them to get it. This is not a new idea but it could make the wireless operators' job of becoming information suppliers a whole lot easier. Instead of having to decide among all of the applications and services wireless operators will provision across their systems, they will make deals with affinity groups such as MTV and let them distribute their content to their members (for a price, of course). MTV could target its own fans, send out clips of new songs and perhaps 10-second video clips of new artists. It can notify its customers about new shows, new events and even sell CDs or MPEG downloads over its affinity group's wireless phones. As a member of the MTV affinity group, customers can still reach out and get other content and applications, but most of their content will be provided by MTV. Once the concept is clear you can add Disney, NASCAR, the NHL, NBA, NFL, MLB, etc. (Wait, didn't paging companies already try this six years or so ago? Yes, they did, but the devices were usable only for that content--no voice, no paging.) This concept is not anything new but it does accomplish several things. First, it keeps customers interested in using data services with what is available and second, it reduces the number of applications and information services that wireless operators have to handle on their own. If I'm an MTV devotee, MTV will provide much of the content that I want to have sent to my phone. Push services become even more important in this scenario. I certainly won't want to have to go retrieve the latest baseball scores, I want them pushed out to me automatically. Let's review what I have just suggested: 1) Affinity groups can be a great source of content and voice and data minutes for the wireless operators. 2) These affinity groups can also be a good source of new wireless users at a cheaper cost to the wireless operator. 3) After the initial few weeks or months of being enamored with data access on a phone, data users will continue to use data because they are getting information about something they care about on a regular basis. 4) Affinity groups gain another "touch point" to reach their customers. 5) The wireless operators don't have to spend as much time and effort making sure they are offering all of the types of content their customers want, the affinity groups can do much of that. Remember when Coke offered pagers to teens? They got a discount and could use them for paging, but Coke would send out messages that included prizes. The use of affinity groups could easily be broadened by the wireless operators and they could make deals with companies that want to reach their customers. Or wireless operators can ignore this suggestion and find out all by themselves that the affinity groups have realized that this is a great channel, in which case wireless operators will still win because of the increased use of data. However, if they are the ones going to the affinity groups to make deals they can win a whole lot bigger! << - Eric -