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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (40877)	8/29/2002 11:24:11 PM
From: greenspirit	Respond to of 281500

Secret files on Baghdad's weapons plans by Michael Evans August 29, 2002 etherzone.com THE only known store of nuclear material in Iraq sits in heavyweight sealed barrels at Tawaitha research facility south of Baghdad. It consists of several tonnes of low-grade uranium and is monitored by an international agency with the full co-operation of the Iraqi regime. The legitimacy of the Tawaitha nuclear material — 1.8 tonnes of low-enriched uranium and “several tonnes” of depleted and natural uranium — contrasts sharply with what Western intelligence agencies believe is President Saddam Hussein’s clandestine programme to build a nuclear bomb and to develop other forms of weapons of mass destruction based on chemical and biological agents. The unpublished “dossier” on Saddam’s secret weapons that the British Government says will be unveiled at the appropriate time — after a decision has been taken to launch a military attack on Iraq — goes some way towards outlining the threat. However, senior Whitehall sources made it clear that it was not “revelatory”. The dossier, which has had to be redrafted several times, is intended to give an unclassified insight into Iraq’s progress in developing unconventional weapons since the United Nations inspections came to an abrupt halt in December 1998. Tony Blair is getting no inside information from President Bush about his plans for dealing with Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction programme, according to a former senior American diplomat. Richard Holbrooke who was United States Ambassador to the United Nations under President Clinton, revealed in The Washington Post that a “senior adviser” to Mr Blair had told him “bitterly” that Mr Bush “was giving Blair nothing” in return for his unstinting support on Iraq. Mr Blair’s official spokesman refused to comment yesterday on Mr Holbrooke’s remark, but said that London and Washington were “100 per cent” agreed on the need to deal with Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. Much of the detail of the Whitehall dossier has come from Iraqi defectors because of the difficulty of acquiring “primary-source” Intelligence from within Iraq. The sources indicated that although much of the recent focus had been on Iraq’s secret plans to “weaponise” biological agents, such as anthrax and smallpox, the main area of concern was still Saddam’s ambition to build a nuclear bomb. One source said: “If Saddam managed to develop a nuclear weapon and a delivery system to reach targets hundreds or thousands of miles away, it would change the whole power balance in the Middle East.” Although the Government has been anxious to keep the contents of the dossier to itself, the thrust of its message has become clear: without the opportunity to send in international inspectors to check on suspected weapons-of-mass-destruction laboratories, the world will remain dangerously ignorant of what Saddam has managed to achieve in the past three and a half years. The sources said that Saddam had “several hundred” scientists and engineers fully employed on developing nuclear, chemical and biological systems. “All of them know from the experience of the few defectors who have managed to escape to America and Britain that Saddam takes ruthless revenge on the families of those who dare to betray the secrets of his weapons programme,” one said. Not only close relations but also the extended family of defectors have been murdered as a warning to others who may be tempted to go over to the West, the source said. Drawing on the discoveries made by the United Nations weapons inspectors before they had to leave Baghdad in December 1998, those contributing to the Whitehall dossier have said that Iraq possessed the capability, the know-how and much of the equipment needed to build a nuclear device. Saddam’s team of nuclear scientists still lack the fissile material to complete the bomb, and there have been no indications from satellite imagery of any attempt to build a facility capable of enriching uranium to bomb-grade quality. For that complex process the Iraqis would need substantial infrastructure and a power supply that could be spotted by American spy satellites. Iraq has the know-how to create highly enriched uranium but the equipment needed was all destroyed by the UN inspectors after the 1991 Gulf War. “But you don’t need large buildings to develop a nuclear bomb if you can acquire weapons-grade enriched material from other sources, such as the black market,” the source said. There are so many research facilities across the former Soviet Union that still have stocks of highly enriched uranium, many of them inadequately guarded, that the biggest fear is that Saddam will be able to shorten the time needed for building a bomb by buying smuggled weapons-grade nuclear material. Last month four men were arrested by police in Georgia with nearly 2kg (4.4lb) of enriched uranium. The low-grade uranium stored at Tawaitha has remained untouched by the Iraqis, who every January welcome a team of four or five nuclear experts from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency to examine the sealed barrels. An agency official confirmed that the seals had never been tampered with, and that the annual visit to Tawaitha had clearly acted as a deterrent to the Iraqis. However, there have been many indications of Saddam’s continuing efforts to develop nuclear weapons by acquiring dual-use equipment, which might seem innocent on the import documents but can be adapted for his unconventional weapons programme. Three years ago Iraq was reported to have ordered half a dozen “lithotripters”, machines that use shock waves to get rid of kidney stones, but UN experts said they also had a practical use for triggering atomic devices. Before the UN inspectors had to leave Baghdad, they had concluded that Saddam’s nuclear scientists had mastered the crucial technique of creating an implosive shock wave that squeezes the nuclear material to trigger a chain reaction. The inspectors also believed it was possible that the Iraqis had managed to design a sufficiently small bomb to fit on to a Scud ballistic missile. There were believed to be at least ten such missiles hidden somewhere in Iraq. Most of Iraq’s Scuds were destroyed by the UN team. The agency keeps a “nuclear file” on Iraq, and although its inspectors, who visit Tawaitha every year, are unable to go anywhere else in Iraq, its officials say that it would be difficult for the Iraqis to get their hands on enriched uranium for a bomb. “Getting the right nuclear material, that’s Iraq’s problem,” one official said. The Whitehall dossier, however, is believed to underline the risk that the rest of the world faces if it waits for Saddam to achieve his goal. He may be several years away from completing his nuclear bomb programme, but if he were to acquire sufficient fissile material, the countdown to his nuclear dream could start much earlier.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (40877)	8/29/2002 11:50:37 PM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

Contrary to some views, I believe If the U.S. military was as successful in Iraq as they were in Afghanistan to install a representative government under the protection of a multinational peace-keeping-force, the Mid-East would explode toward democratic forms of government in the next decade. President Bush is setting the stage, similar to what President Reagan did in the 80's in regard to communism, to dramatically turn back the tide of dictatorial rule, and move another billion people under the vision of democratic governance. I can't think of time in history when two democracies, interdependent on each-other for free trade, ever started a major war against one another. It's a risk, perhaps a big one. But the benefits of a huge upheaval ushering in millions upon millions of people toward democratic rule and free market capitalism are too great a benefit to ignore. Most of the wonderful people in the Middle East yearn for the same freedom and liberty we've won. We need only break down the barriers standing in the way of their natural desire for freedom. Did anyone believe the price of world peace would be a small one? With great risk, may come great reward.