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Biotech / Medical : Guidant (GDT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ausdauer who wrote (208)	9/4/2002 10:23:42 AM
From: Lighthouse	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 235

Thanks for the response. I will state upfront that I am no doctor and no expert on the matter of statistics, clinical compounds, or even medical device securities. I am simply posting what I have read and attempting to stimulate useful discourse on the subject. 2003 is JNJ's year regardless of what everybody else does. My understanding of the data presented in May at the Paris Course was that the 8 month angiographic data on the first 400 patients showed an in-stent restenosis rate of 2% versus 31% in the control arm, which constitutes a 94% improvement, and the in-segement restenosis rate was 9.2% versus 32.3% in the control arm, which equated to a 72% improvement. These results were outstanding, but IMHO left the door open for paclitaxel to compete. Europe, if history is any guide, will adopt the JNJ stent but it will take more time tha the US. Once the Cypher is launched in the US (1st qtr 03 or so) the conversion will be rapid. If the judge enjoins the data from Cook/GDT on the pax stent, then GDT pays $50 million to Cook and walks away. GDT takes a big beating in its vascular business beginning in 2nd or 3rd qtr of 03 and really takes a beating in 04. Market share could easily drop into the single digits worldwide by 2nd qtr 04. GDT then has to wait it out until Everolimus comes on line sometime in 05 or maybe 06. Too long - the best of the sales force will have left by then. Maybe they talk to JNJ? If the judge allows the data then I believe the pax stent will take slightly less than half the drug eluding stent market share in 2004 (right now I am at 45% since by all appearances the pax stent and the JNJ stent have roughly equivalent outcomes (granted this is surmised since there are no head to head comparisons yet)). This market share will be split between BSX and GDT depending on blocking and tackling in the field sales forces. The above is the authors opinion alone and does not purport to be accurate, germain, or intelligent. Cheers,