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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (18366)	9/5/2002 11:08:33 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider, My point is that Crude Oil has the "risk premium" - not the OSX, or XOI stocks Good point, I stand corrected. You've also summarized my fall back position for this autumn: There could be a nice trading pop in the OSX stocks on the move into Iraq... a pop from the 60/70's here to the mid 90's even 100 is likely - As usual, your post an excellent analysis. Best Regards, Roebear

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (18366)	9/5/2002 11:23:30 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 36161

Slider and all, Some good stuff from Paul Shread on SAII: siliconinvestor.com Have been looking for H&S patterns the size of the current $SPX and $WLSH ones (about 4 1/2 years), and haven't been able to find any, at least for the 105 years that the Dow has been around (the rails in 1884 was also a statistically valid average, but I have been unable to find a chart of them from 1884-1897). The closest I've found was a two-year pattern on the Dow from 1915-1917. As far as I can tell, 80-90% of the projected downside out of that pattern was reached, which would equate to 410-470 on the current S&P pattern. Here's the only chart I could find of that top that I could post: cache.wsrn.com It's possible that there were some spanning longer than that in the 1830s to 1850s, but anything before 1884 is someone's extrapolation of what happened: cache.wsrn.com *** One good analysis deserves another (even if it isn't mine, ggg) Roebear

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (18366)	9/5/2002 12:59:06 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

MidEast turmoil, US pressure on AlQaeda, Islamic groundswell they all go hand in hand with a premium on oil prices they are all tied closely together whatever the source of a "conflict premium", doesnt matter a premium is there and will remain there ad infinitum just what the hell is gonna bring all conflicts to resolution? OPEC reduces prices even as member nations are threatened? even as shipping lanes become clogged with warships? USForces wipe out AlQaeda in a Terminix project? Talibans in Afghany join the Parliament? Palestine lives in harmony with Israel? Israels make friends with the Arab world? no way, not now, not next year, not by 2005 you speak of $14-15 oil upon a condition that will be met when Garrison Keiller is president, and all our children will be above average I poke fun seriously, this entire decade will be chockfull of conflict and most of it will be traceable to the MidEast WTC and 9/11 represent apocolyptic events no turning back I expect the MidEast and Europe to serve as focal points for international geo-politics for many years upcoming the price of oil will remain high almost without interruption you always have a sharp eye out there but I honestly believe you are being fooled by linking the commodity world to the economic world too tightly the Puplava Birfurcation is very much on schedule oil services are a different story we will not search for new oil while gobs of oil lie in the MidEast powderkeg but delivery of that oil is a totally different risk proposition that is why OIH/OSX and OIX are two different birds the CRB is trending higher in ALL its components the many individual items are not just supplies for economies that ebb & flow with recession & expansion they are necessities for providing climate control, transportation, and much more for even the unemployed, who will surely receive federal assistance at a level never seen before in the coming years if your crashing oil price theory were correct, we would have seen crude oil steadily fall as the economy has slowed since the past winter instead it rises to be sure, the MidEast situation has delivered a premium in its price but explain the 80% rise in natural gas prices since Jan2002 these are necessities in short supply Bifurcation is the next ENIGMA then imho, the following ENIGMA is rising rates as the US economy falters (from USdollar decline) this decade will be full of enigmas / jim