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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (43400)	9/12/2002 2:31:23 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Bill Gertz has been defense and national-security reporter for the Washington Times since 1985. His latest book is "Breakdown: How America's Intelligence Failures Led to September 11." I posted some excerpt from it last month. Here is a quote from an interview with him that I think sums up our Intelligence problem. >>>Lopez: What's the worst thing today about American intelligence? Gertz: The most serious problem facing U.S. intelligence agencies today is a lack of human-intelligence capabilities. We don't have good spies. This is the result of decades of over-reliance on technical spying and letting friendly foreign-intelligence services do the spying on the ground. We urgently need a crash program to create a new clandestine service, one that will have as its main goal the penetration and disruption of terrorist organizations that have targeted the United States.<<<<< nationalreview.com

To: Dayuhan who wrote (43400)	9/12/2002 3:11:49 AM
From: D. Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

You posted: Yes. And after we invade, we will give them a new set of despot rulers who will do exactly the same thing until they are deposed by yet another set, while the people remain poor, disenfranchised, unemployed, and undereducated. Only this time they will be our puppets, and the poor fuckers under them will have a real reason to be angry at us. To which I replied: The Germans and the Japanese don't seem to share your pessimism towards American magnanimity in victory. My point being: We didn't install dictators in West Germany or Japan or any of the other nations we liberated or helped liberate throughout Europe and the Pacific. The same applies to Afghanistan, even though it would have been much easier for us to just let Rabbani take the gig and leave it at that. When the US has had to rebuild a nation - it has built democratic institutions there. No, Iraq is not nearly as homogeneous as Japan or Germany. But Iraq will not be a ruin after a US invasion, unlike Germany, and even Iraq is more acclimated to republicanism than the Japanese were, even if it is fake democracy. And unlike Germany or Japan, Iraq has tremendous oil riches to fund its restructuring. Derek

To: Dayuhan who wrote (43400)	9/12/2002 8:05:52 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I think Iraq is far more analogous to Germany and Japan than Afghanistan is. Even more so with Iran. Far more literacy, for example. Much lower infant mortality. Much higher GDP per capita. I believe Iraq and Iran will be easier to rehabilitate than Afghanistan. Literacy rate per country: Afghanistan Male 47.2% Female 15% Iran Male 78.4% Female: 65.8% Iraq male: 70.7% Female: 45% Infant mortality rate: Afghanistan 147.02 deaths/1,000 live births Iran 29.04 deaths/1,000 live births Iraq 60.05 deaths/1,000 live births GDP per capita: Afghanistan - $800 Iran - $6,300 Iraq - $2,500 Just for comparison - GDP per capita in Bosnia is $1700. cia.gov