Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (7002)	9/12/2002 10:48:59 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

just so you know....from 1932-37 during the "depression"....the market went from under 50 to near 200.....you had a double....a retest....another double....goo....then another double in those 4 years.... while those who got wiped out during the 29-32 bear suffered in the 30's.... the fat cats got rich all over again...... the bull doesn't start again at 700.....theres a retest maybe 6-months later to a higher low.... those who jump the 700 bottom and get the mindset its a hold forever will likely be shaken out again on the retest..... then....off that retest you could get a few good years to hold......but thats it......after that the next decade could be goo!!!!!!

To: orkrious who wrote (7002)	9/12/2002 11:14:56 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

btw....you are getting clues right now today as to how this plays out..... fiber op companies already said in june they see no recovery till maybe 2004.....other sectors are pushing outlooks back further into 2003.... timing of a 700 bottom is around next march.....a run to a double and retest would land right around next october..... the market looks ahead to that 2004 recovery..... thats it.....your higher low retest bottom and run up into an expected 2004 recovery.... the run off the 700 bottom would likely be fueled by a 4th quarter 03 recovery.....but then after a few months its likely you get warnings as everything is pushed out to mid 2004....thus you get that selloff for the october higher low retest..... sounds crazy.....but until this retrace fails.....thats the path its leading us on.... its proven to be foolish to try and out guess this retrace or go against it....... so i sure won't go against it until my technical signal says its over....