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To: yard_man who wrote (191858)	9/13/2002 9:24:01 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Anybody -- does this look like spin to you? >>Retail sales jumped 0.8 percent last month, the Commerce Department said. That followed increases of 1.1 percent in July and 1.4 percent << There is a trend here -- isn't this against the typical seasonal trend -- doesn't sales growth usually accelerate into the fall??

To: yard_man who wrote (191858)	9/13/2002 9:24:17 AM
From: who cares?	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

forbes.com Can the homebuilders get on the cover of Sports Illustrated or be named Time Man of the Year? That's about all that would be better than this. When All Chips Are Down, Bet The House John J. Ray, 09.13.02, 8:30 AM ET NEW YORK - In July new-home sales were up 15.4% over July of 2001 to an annualized rate of 1.02 million units. The housing sector is responsible for 14% of the U.S. gross domestic product; the strength of the home-building industry--which is benefiting from the 30-year low in mortgage rates--is helping to offset weakness in other sectors. Can housing help sustain the U.S. economy? Dave Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders for one, doesn't see a letup in housing through the end of next year. "I can't even think of a logical reason why it shouldn't continue. It's almost ludicrous to think about any broad-scale price decline," says Seiders. Many people on Wall Street, however, seem to think the current housing boom is a bubble. As a result, shares of quality housing stocks sell at depressed multiples. Lennar (nyse: LEN - news - people ), for example, is priced at just seven times estimated 2003 profits of $7.66 per share. For the first six months of its current fiscal year Miami-based Lennar delivered 10,960 housing units compared with 9,610 units for the same period last year. The firm's order backlog is valued at $3.1 billion. Lennar also has been buying up smaller regional builders at a furious pace. Such moves can be a relatively affordable way for a builder to acquire land, increase market share and boost earnings.(Sure, this worked so well for WCOM, LOL) Lennar bought six companies--including Concord Homes, the top home builder in Chicago--in July and August, and paid cash for all. Our table highlights residential home builders that have at least a 20% average return on equity over the past five years and three-year earnings-per-share growth of at least 30% (annualized). All these companies have annual sales of more than $1 billion. KB Home (nyse: KBH - news - people ), formerly known as Kaufman & Broad Homes, is one of the largest builders of entry-level homes (2001 average home price: $178,000). The Los Angeles-based firm operates in the high-demand areas of California, Florida, Arizona and Texas, and also has operations in France. For KB Home's latest 12 months, ended in May, return on equity rose to 25%, just above the company's five-year average ROE of 24%. During this stretch, the company earned $5.98 per share on $4.7 billion in net sales. One year earlier, it had net profits of $4.91 per share. While the S&P 500 now stands 14% above its 52-week low, KB Home has almost doubled in price since last September, yet sells for just eight times latest 12-month earnings and seven times 2003 estimated profits. The market for high-end homes is also healthy. Toll Brothers (nyse: TOL - news - people ), the nation's largest luxury-home builder, had a record $704 million in contracts for its third quarter, ended July 31. For those who think the housing market will remain strong, Toll is attractively priced at only six times latest 12-month earnings and only eight times its 2003 forecast.