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To: yard_man who wrote (191860)	9/13/2002 12:13:26 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

They are saying that it was up 5.2% compared with last August, so the seasonality question appears to be negative on a relative basis. They certainly have plenty of spinning they can do given the adjustments they can make. census.gov This increase doesn't really surprise me because I've been seeing ads in the paper for big ticket items -- furniture, stereo gear, etc., with no interest and no payments for 18 months or more. I'm sure that consumers, who've demonstrated the same reckless behavior as corporations and government (surprise!), figure if the worst happens, they'll just declare bankruptcy and let the creditors come for the used merchandise, if they can find it after all that time.

To: yard_man who wrote (191860)	9/13/2002 4:58:59 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

tip, i spend more time looking at the trends in year-year growth than in month-month growth for the month of August, sales ex autos were +3.73% year-year. further adjust for building supplies and sales were +3.35% year-year. for the month of July, sales ex autos were +3.80% year-year. further adjust for building supplies and sales were +3.53% year-year. for the month of June, sales ex autos were +3.80% year-year. further adjust for building supplies and sales were +3.60% year-year. so we have witnessed a modest de-celeration over the last three months. also, to put a little more historical context on this, in August of 2000 the sales ex autos were +6.67% versus August 1999 and sales ex autos and ex building materials were +6.95% versus August 1999. so there is a HUGE slow-down in consumer growth versus just a couple of years ago. i frankly find it borderline unbelievable that with all the refi activity, all the cheap credit offers, etc etc etc that retail sales are growing so slowly. and remember, those are NOMINAL growth rates, not real. slowly but ever so surely the consumer is caving. Cheers