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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (61279)	9/13/2002 4:42:38 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 77399

Nice post John. Lots of uncommon wisdom in it. << I didn't get out until July '00 and so I missed the absolute market top by a few months. >> You did well to get out that close to the top.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (61279)	9/28/2002 5:22:39 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77399

Indeed, the market will turn up from The Bottom before many of us realize it has done so given the size of the mania, and the length of the preceding bull market, and the continued belief by most that stocks are the only way to go (a belief found even among [especially among?] those who lost a ton in the tech wreck), i don't see how we can have a sustainable bull market again for at least a decade. it takes a lot of time to turn people away from the mania. equities are now embedded in the financial structure of more people than ever. this means there is too much capital chasing equities. too much capital means returns must be poor in the long run. read accounts of how little interest there was in equities in the US in the late 70s, or in the 40s, or in Japan today. this kind of complete dissociation from equities will be necessary to put in a real bottom (a necessary but not sufficient condition in Japan today). we are so far from that mentality today in the US it's not even funny. we still have at least three cable TV stations devoted to following the markets whenever they are open. all these stations will need to shut down for lack of interest. you go into the book store and see 20 or 30 personal finance and stock magazines. these all need to go away. there are so many financial gurus out there i want to barf. Suze Orman, Jim Cramer, Gilder, Kiyosaki (the Rich Man Poor Man guy), yada yada. gurus on investing for the elderly. investing gurus for children ("Rich Kid Poor Kid"--i kid you not). investing gurus for women and investing gurus for minorities. i did not see any personal finance guides tailored specifically for the unique investing issues faced by the left-handed, but i suppose i just haven't looked hard enough... i was looking at all these books by the gurus in the bookstore today (they all have these airbrushed pics of themselves on the dust jacket), and i was thinking it'd be great to become a guru about how to be a guru. after all, it's the gurus who clean up. if there systems actually worked, they'd be stupid to tell anybody about them. btw, the absolute best financial book title i have ever seen is "The Idiot's Guide to Daytrading". i saw this book today and almost picked it up. it could be valuable memorabilia some day. the most honest book title ever! it will be a long time before that happens, but i think it will. my guess is it will take 25 years, though. then i think one can buy The Bottom. except nobody will even care anymore. until 25 years later (2052), when there'll be another mania just like the late 90s. except most of us will be very old or dead by then.