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To: orkrious who wrote (192140)	9/16/2002 11:14:25 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

sounds like wishful thinking -g-

To: orkrious who wrote (192140)	9/16/2002 11:21:01 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

don't get too far ahead of yourself Ork. MGIC just a warning. they are still 'making money' (via the odd way the insurance industry accounts for itself). what we need to see is an actual withdrawl of credit from the marginal buyer (i.e. the sub-prime borrower). it is happening in credit-card land (Providian, NextCard and Metris) but it has not yet hit auto and home. not YET. that said, i don't think people really appreciate the ripple effects here, anymore than they understood the ripple effects of credit being withdrawn from marginal corporations (Pets.com, Winstar) on the economy as a whole. when that sub-prime borrower can no longer access credit to buy that two-family in Jamaica Plain, the former JP resident from whom the two-family was purchased can no longer afford to move into the South End, and the South End resident can no longer afford the McMansion in Wellesly. everybody for some reason thinks this whole thing is going to come undone from the top (i.e. highest-priced) down; its going to blow up from the bottom up. its in motion (slowly) but hasn't really picked up gas yet. we need MGIC book equity to actually become impaired (hasn't happened yet) so they are FORCED to pull back on writing new insurance. that's when the waterfall starts. Cheers