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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SirRealist who wrote (44919)	9/17/2002 8:54:53 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Kevin, I think it's too early to make those kinds of predictions. The Bush folk are under some kind of internal pressures to get an attack done. I don't know whether it's a way of settling the conflicts within the administration or trying to save face for Bush or what. But they don't offer us evidence of an immediate threat; but act as if one were there. So I expect plays and counter plays for a few days, perhaps weeks, with the UNSC, Congress, Iraq, and the various conflicts within the Bush administration all working out roles. My own guess, and it's the wildest of ones, is that the next time we'll have a fairly clear picture is in the week or two just before the Nov elections. I do think much of the war rhetoric from Bush is driven by the prospects of either gaining control of the Senate or losing control of the House. And that once that gets clear, the Bush folk will do something. Just not certain what. For folks like us who are serious political addicts, it will be extremely interesting. The only diversions I can see are (a) a seriously good set of opponents in the World Series, hopefully the Yankees and the Braves; and/or (b) my New York Giants doing well.