Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : News Links and Chart Links -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (2885)	9/18/2002 6:21:18 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29603

1) i'm gonna take the high road and assume you actually have an interest in my methodology. 2) I don't post all my trades...not enough bandwidth for that. I do post the ones that I am attempting to hold for swings. 2 days to 2 weeks. Whenever I make a trade there is a defined exit strategy. If my stop gets hit, I'll bail. That's how I'm still in the game. You have to live to fight another battle. 3) I bother to post the trades with the thought that some people out there in cyberspace actually get some tidbit of info/help from them. And I hope that they will be generous enough to share information that may help me in a future trade. 4) I made a macro call on gold last week that I stand by. 290 by Dec 31. It's trading at the peak of its channel and can still move down below 300 while maintaining its long term uptrend. We are deflating and the only thing keeping gold elevated at this point is the fear/flight to safety factor. A good opportunity for it to consolidate for the next run up. 5) I made a macro call on a cyclical bull within a secular bear on the indices. The trading recently says to me that new and significant lows are coming first. Sloppy and terminal. I didn't think that was going to happen as of last week. 6) If we tank here then that cyclical bull call is BS. No way tax selling will allow ANY appreciable bounce. The tax selling issue is HUGE. It locks the indices in trading patterns from October to January. If we stay down big going into that quarter the selling will be relentless as everyone is scrambling to get the losers off the books. If we move up big, then that will negate significant tax loss selling and set-up a performance chasing, countertrend rally as the hedgies scramble to get on the right side of the tape. I love October to January. There is big money to be made during these months. So....i'm trying to position for a big and meaty end of year move. As for positions overnight, am holding 2k AMZN short from 17.60. I'll be quick with the trigger because that p/c ratio of 1.20 is screaming bounce and we have triple witching coming on friday. Typically the calls and puts both get creamed on the volatility. It's very hard to hold a swing this week because of that expiration date. From a long term standpoint I am in your camp. It's frigging ugly out there. Deflation, unemployment, Dow 3500, S&P 350, Nasdaq 500. Can it get much worse than that? sheesh!? There you have it. Hope that clarifies. Your turn W.F. -g-