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To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (3365)	9/19/2002 8:24:15 AM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4051

<<If inflation is coming real estate is going higher not lower especially if the mortgage is transferrable. >> doesn't it all depend upon that real estate about which you speak? I've often posted how there are(were?) only pockets where real estate valuations are stretched beyond reality. These areas include bulk west of mountains in CA, much of Portland - Seattle, Front range of mid-northern Colorado rockies(Colorado Springs north to near WY border)+ mid to northern mountain resort areas, Jackson WY, Santa Fe & Taos NM, Austin Tx, massive chunk of US east coast VA to NY. parts of Fl, and some others. There are, though, areas where property(even improved - decent residential) either not suffering (until recently) inflation or suffering valuation deflation! This / these trend(s) seems to have just begun to turn. While at the same time home sales are at a near all time high repossessions are also at a thirty year high. Here in the Denver area, while property prices have yet to begin dropping in any great way, massive price increases have ended & many say this is true in much of CA & WA state. Some even suggest that older/ marginal properties have begun to decline slightly. At the same time, properties in more rural areas are beginning to edge higher! I am beginning to see some increases in Amarillo, Lubbock & even Dumas Tx. Pueblo & Trinidad Co seemed to have perhaps turned up. BUT there remain areas untouched by any form of increase - and are still, perhaps, gripped by price reductions! samples of each condition? century21casa.com century21casa.com jeannbatesrealtors.com casa4sale.com IMO from here we'll see somewhat of an averaging or normalizing of real estate valuations across the nation. Make no mistake there will be a massive popping of the bubble that exists in limited areas. A major factor which has driven a lowering of rural real estate pricing has been depressed pricing for agricultural commodities / products. In the largest part driven by a artificially supported $US - to a lesser level by higher production. Production has been reduced by by drought & waste through mad cow in Europe / Japan. All admit the $US now follows the market, not the other way around. Lastly, a growing # (pun noted?) of farmers / ranchers are now producing, processing, and selling higher margin products(elk,biason,heritage specialized variety tomatoes, emu, "free range" beef...)& marketing through the internet w/ delivery Via Fed-Ex / UPS Blue & Red As people can, again, make a living in rural America prices will return & this will moderate demand in the urban areas. Remember, there is not a single US real estate market but instead perhaps a million different unique US realestate marketS! This most basic fact is lost on the mass media & near all of the (so called) real estate analysts, both of which are located in these hottest of markets. Maybe, maybe, just maybe, with people flying less & driving RV's more, truth will again be seen, & then perhaps even reported. Just now an analyst on CNBC speaks about the coming multi-year run in the soft commodities. His important message, though, fell upon the deaf ears of the talking heads who can be probing or questioning, requesting of more info., but only about the improving demand / supply balance equation in the gold market... . Didn't they ever hear "that if you eat your involved in agriculture"? Perhaps when they are next hungry...

To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (3365)	9/19/2002 9:27:13 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4051

Liz: I agree 100%. Little joe

To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (3365)	9/19/2002 1:08:47 PM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4051

Where I live the combination of cap gains and the IPO boom that went right along with the tech boom increased demand and housing costs. In the last six years houses have doubled in price. Population as well as job demand has not doubled. The majority of new mortgages are refinance. This does create cash flow in the finance industry as well as aid the building industry but ii is in direct in conflict with corporate world where growth costs must be in line with future profit potential. The melt down caused by the tech boom is starting to wind down so salaries will start to become more meager for those who have lived off the legal grave yard industry. The difference in this period is that large world corporations have moved to areas where labor costs are less. In developed nations this means the job market has started to reach a stage of over saturation . The problem is huge as if there is not growth internally the suppliers who rely on external sales as Japan did have a limited market due to limited job growth in the nations they sell too and provide for. Unlike other periods the whole of this nation is experiencing a substantial increase in property values wages have to meet costs of housing. If the CPI appears as benign inflation to me it means the figures are not current enough to spot wage as well as housing inflation. Average house price LA $323,000 wage wise one needs income of over 85,000 to qualify. Minimum wage here $7.50 average wage here probably about $20.00 two income earners do not make adequate income.