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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5452)	9/19/2002 10:08:36 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

CSFB on BTB: SEMI August BTB ahead of expectations, but lagging reality •Book-to-Bill ahead of expectations, but is a lagging indicator. SEMI reported August Book to Bill Wednesday after the close. Ratio was 1.14, ahead of our expectation for 1.03 and consensus of 1.01, but down from 1.26 in July (revised up from 1.18). Remember that book-to-bill is a lagging indicator and Aug. data reflects AMAT’s initial guidance for down 5-15%, rather than current conditions. Bookings -5% vs our expected –10% and billings +1% vs. our expected +1%. •Back-end a leading indicator, drops below parity. Back-end bookings declined 21% to $142.1m and billings increased 7% to $184.5m, driving BE B:Bill of 0.87; third consecutive monthly decline from May peak of 1.40. BE again serving as leading indicator, accelerating down ahead of FE. Front-end bookings declined 2% to $979.6m, billings flat at $796.7, driving b:bill of 1.23. Although FE held up better than expected, we believe data does not reflect current environment and could see company bookings decline 20-25% in C3Q. •Year-end trade looking less likely. With H202 dampened relative to normal seasonal patterns, we believe SCE bookings are poised for a 3-quarter downturn, with trough in 1Q03. Our visit to Asia confirms our belief that capex will continue to have a downward bias, putting pressure on SCE revenue estimates which still average 24% growth in 2003. With prospects for a recovery pushing out and dampening, we remain underweight SCE.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5452)	9/19/2002 5:57:16 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

Qualcomm surges in late trade rally Jabil jumps, 3Com slumps following earnings results By Shawn Langlois, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 5:45 PM ET Sept. 19, 2002 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Qualcomm shares screamed 9 percent higher in Thursday's late session after the company said its seeing strong demand for chip orders. Jabil and 3Com headed in opposite directions following their quarterly reports during a much-needed evening tech-stock revival. The tech-laden Nasdaq-100 After Hours Indicator, which tracks the evening action of the index's leading stocks, moved up 7 at 873. Earlier, the Nasdaq and the Dow closed right at the lows of the day, off 36 at 1,216 and down 230 at 7,942, respectively. See Market Snapshot. Qualcomm, TriQuint push higher Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM: news, chart, profile) jumped $2.33 from its close at $25.72 when the company updated its outlook for strong fourth quarter chip demand. And TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT: news, chart, profile) added 14 percent after the communications chipmaker kept its third-quarter financial targets steady and said it expects fourth-quarter revenue flat to slightly higher sequentially with earnings of nil to a penny a share. Jabil, 3Com, Tibco report On the earnings front, shares of Jabil Circuit (JBL: news, chart, profile) jumped 4 percent after the contract manufacturer reported an in-line fourth-quarter profit on better-than-expected sales. 3Com (COMS: news, chart, profile) was one of the harder hit stocks in late trade as shares fell nearly 2 percent. The networking-equipment company reported a first-quarter net loss of 9 cents a share, or $32 million, on revenue of $305 million. Revenue was down 10 percent from the previous, and at the low end of 3Com's previous estimate range Tibco Software (TIBX: news, chart, profile) posted a loss versus a profit a year earlier, citing a cutback on customer spending. The stock moved 11 percent higher following the announcement. Late spotlight Electronic Data Systems shares (EDS: news, chart, profile) stayed active but were little changed in the third market. The computer services firm lost half its value on the heels of its steep profit warning Wednesday, closing down $19.26 at $17.20. See full story. Competitor IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile) touched on a new 52-week low of $64.65 in the early going and added a few cents after the bell. A bevy of Wall Street analysts, including Merrill Lynch, Lehman and Morgan Stanley, cut estimates on Big Blue in the wake of the EDS news. Other tech notables Cisco (CSCO: news, chart, profile), Sun Micro (SUNW: news, chart, profile) and Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) rounded out the Nasdaq most-actives in the early going with Sun taking the biggest beating in the group, down 30 cents at $2.70. All three issues stayed busy on Island with minimal moves into positive territory.