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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kvkkc1 who wrote (61385)	9/20/2002 9:30:20 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi kckkc1, by mature, I mean penetration rate. All of the technologies I listed are in their infancy in terms of penetration rate. Also, all of the technologies I listed are bandwidth hogs, so when they are run of IP, which is ultimately what drives Internet growth, then those technologies can drive bandwidth demand through the roof. Also, although things like teleconferencing have been around for awhile, they haven't been available over IP for as long. In addition, VOD has NOT been available for years. I only recently was able to get VOD through iControl and HBO On Demand over my digital cable box through Time Warner. That service has not been available until very recenly. Remember that Pay Per View is NOT VOD. Lastly, there is a lot of bandwidth capacity in terms of the fiber optic cables buried in the ground. But a huge percentage of that cable is dark. Dark means they have no networking gear attached to it to tap into its network capacity. Networking gear has to be purchased and set up with the fiber optic cable to light it up and make it usable. So although, it's true that lots of capacity exists out there, it will remain untapped until networking gear is purchased to use it. Right now, service providers are approaching the bursting point in that demand is rapidly approaching supply. Very soon, as early as 2003, they will have to start buying new networking gear to light up dark fiber, and upgrading old network gear to ratchet up speed on already lit fiber. Now I doubt, we'll ever see Bubble days network spending again, but spending will return to normal growth in the single digits as early as 2003, but no later than 2004. Having said all of the above, Cisco is still overpriced. :) At least, until they figure out a way to reverse the damage from their liberal stock options usage.