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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (15496)	9/23/2002 4:49:49 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78670

Timba agree with your fundamental analysis of jpm but not your strategy. Unless you expect a complete collapse the trade is likely to be a loss. Some time ago I wrote a 27.5/22.5 December put spread at cost of 2.4. Do you expect the huge 30 trillion of notional derivative exposure to blow up in their face? In the next 8 weeks??

To: TimbaBear who wrote (15496)	9/23/2002 5:36:30 PM
From: janie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78670

Hi Tim! I just covered my JPM puts. It looks like I'll have to get some more. I tried to PM you a few times, but it didn't work so I thought I'd catch you like this. I'm short MMM, RYL and HDI...AZO looks like it might have potential also(earnings out on 9-25). Wish me luck...take care of you! Janie PS--I put your GLG on my gold list..thx!

To: TimbaBear who wrote (15496)	9/24/2002 5:26:38 AM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78670

Timba, I think you have the right idea that option play should be limited to "mad money" bets in small amounts. They're like playing penny stocks with murderous spreads. At the same time, I think I'd tend to agree with Allen that Nov 12 1/2s are too far out of the money, with too close an expiration date, to give the chart time to work. If you paid .4 on the ask, with the bid at .15 on 10 contracts, plus $60 in commission for the round trip, you're looking at an 80% loss just for placing the trade. You'd still have to make up some ground buying, for example, 3 Mar $15 contracts for about the same price, but at least they still have some market value after the order fills, plus you have some time cushion to let the trend work in your favor if you hit a dead cat bounce like we saw in August. Either that or pay the higher premium for shorter dated contracts, at or in the money, and figure on closing the position within a matter of days. Also, starting positions at a time when there are a lot of bears playing in the woods usually means you'll be fighting a certain amount of profit taking by the short money any time there's a sharp drop in price. Personally, I still like large cap insurance companies for put options. With the third quarter looking like it'll end close to the bottom of the chart, there should be a bloodbath on mark to market adjustments on their investments, not to mention their huge exposure to corporate debt. Not a recommendation, just an opinion. We'll see. Not to change the off topic topic...but..... I've been watching the indexes for foreign markets for awhile and have noticed a couple which seem to be moving against the trend for the rest of the world. finance.yahoo.com^KSE&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l finance.yahoo.com^CSE&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l While I find it hard to imagine investing in Pakistan or Sri Lanka, I was kind of curious if anyone has a theory why they seem to be enjoying a bull market when everything else is in the dumpster? So far I haven't seen any comments by money managers claiming, "Oh yeah, I beat the market in 2002 by loading up on Pakistani blue chips at the beginning of the year.". Would anyone admit it if they had?