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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5602)	9/23/2002 6:41:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95480

Just a quick follow up to the last note - while I was listening to the TV commentator, he said that $160B of market cap was "wiped out" today. Won't take long at that rate, about 6 trading days, to drop another Trillion. That kind of shock does have some impact on people's buying habits to keep the economy going. I hope Alan is paying attention! Don

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5602)	9/23/2002 6:45:25 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 95480

Donald: My bet is that you get your rally no matter what Greenspan does even though the emperor does not wear any clothes at this point.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (5602)	9/23/2002 8:26:53 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95480

Briefing.com stuff below but first... I agree with Justa, no matter what, we will get a rally. If Alan Greenspan does cut rates at this unexpected time it could actually help for a change but it is not necessary. We need something to jump-start business spending and lower interest rates alone just won't do it. The consumer has bought all the cars and houses that anyone can expect in an economy that has not got a business led recovery. Today, only two of the SOX components managed to avoid making 52 week lows. From Briefing.com: 6:21PM Anadigics reaffirms Q3; cuts 10% of workforce (ANAD) 2.01 -0.34: Company reaffirms guidance for Q3 (Sep), expecting EPS loss of $0.33 and revenues of $21 mln, both in line with Multex consensus. Also, ANAD is accelerating efforts to return to break-even EBITDA and anticipates recording in Q3 2002 special charges of about $15-$17 mln or $0.49-$0.56 per share; co will also cut about 10% of its 450 employees. 5:29PM Palm guides lower for Q2 (PALM) 0.76 +0.03: -- Update -- Sees Q2 revs in the range of $245-$265 mln vs the Multex consensus estimate for revs of $268 mln. 4:05PM Palm beats by a penny (PALM) 0.76 +0.03: Reports Q1 (Aug) loss of $0.06 per share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus of ($0.07); revenues fell 19.6% year/year to $172.3 mln vs the $177.6 mln consensus. 3:09PM QLogic sells off following presentation (QLGC) 26.95 -1.59: We are hearing that QLGC just reaffirmed their previous Q3 forecast of 3-8% sequential rev growth during their presentation at the Banc of America investor conference; however, the stock has sold off in the last half hour as apparently the Street was expecting a higher number. 2:55PM Microsoft (MSFT) 45.11 -2.35: Shares are 5% down in today's session due to cautious comments by CEO (see In-Play for details) and ests cuts by Soundview Technology. Firm thinks co's growth is limited without improvement in PC growth and IT spending; reduces revs and EPS ests going forward, but slightly raises Q204 (Dec Y03) EPS ests and maintains Q103 ests due to pre-July 31 license signings and customers paying for their second year of Enterprise Agreements and Software Assurance in Sept; thinks shares are expensive at current levels, would not be buyers. 1:54PM Marvell (MRVL) 18.23 -0.22: Mgmt reiterated comfort with their 10% seq. growth est at their meeting with Goldman Sachs Fri; firm reiterates their Recommended List rating and forecasts MRL will see 71% growth this year and 40% the next .. Co also noted it is deliberately slowing its wafer starts to better manage its inventory on-hand; remains cautious on end mkt demand picture and continues to compensate with co-specific product cycles. 11:44AM Semiconductor index touches new four-year low : -- Technical -- SOX index -- currently trading at 239 -- is touching its worst levels since October of 1998. Sector leader Intel (INTC -4.6%) leading the way lower today as it has broken to a new 52-week low. 9:20AM CSFB cuts 2003 capex forecast, estimates for semi equipment co's : CSFB cuts ests for ACLS, AMAT, AMKR, ATMI, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, NVLS, TER, and VSEA due to lowered 2003 capex forecast (to $26.0 bln from $33.2 bln). 9:44AM Technical Levels : The markets finished out last week -- from a strictly technical perspective -- operating within a good news/bad news sort of scenario. The bad news is that the major indices are once again working their way towards multi-year lows. The Dow finished the week just below support at 8,000 and the Nasdaq came within ten points of its July closing low twice. Yet that last statement could be characterized as the silver lining as well. Despite Friday's triple witch, ongoing earnings pre-announcements, concerns about the Israeli/Palestinian situation etc. etc. -- the price action was far from terrifying. In fact, the Dow finished the week just below support at 8,000 -- without breaking it cleanly -- and the Nasdaq held within ten points of its July closing low on two consecutive sessions. Whether the glass ultimately appears as half empty or half full depends, as it always has, on your particular point of view. From the standpoint of the straight technical levels, look for initial support now at 1,216 which has held on an intraday basis twice. That area is followed by more significant support at 1,206 which represents the index' August 5th closing low. If 1,206 should fail , then the support point of last resort will become 1,192 which represents the index' intraday low on July 24th. This point is interesting because you'll remember that July 24th marked the powerful reversal, which many analysts have called the market bottom. To the upside, watch for initial resistance in the area of modest chart congestion at 1,236 to 1,240. That area is followed by subsequent overhead at 1,250 and 1,260/1,262. Note that none of the immediate resistance points appears all that formidable. Now in our last review, we noted that the 'July to present' time frame has taken on a somewhat disturbing look from the standpoint of its chart pattern. Namely, the index is taking on the shape of a crude head and shoulders pattern which is a decidedly bearish formation. This suggests the next several weeks will be important from the standpoint of determining the intermediate to longer-term direction. Yet we'll hold off on pressing the 'panic' button unless, or until, we see a clean closing break of support in the 1,192 to 1,206 range. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ACLS+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+AMKR+ANAD+ATMI+BRCM+INTC+KLAC+KLIC+LLTC+LRCX+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MSFT+MU+MRVL+MXIM+NSM+NVLS+PALM+QLGC+TER+TXN+VSEA+XLNX+^VIX+^IXIC&d=t RtS