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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (83427)	9/25/2002 9:56:55 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi BB. I think gold stocks are going to pull back and base for the next 2 to 4 weeks. I am actually completely out of gold stocks for the first time in at least two years. My stock of choice (GLG) is still above my last sell, which was $9.33. I believe I will be able to get back in at just south of $8 but I think I'll start to accumulate just north of $8. I believe the rising POG acts as a governor for further price appreciation even as investment demand increases because the jewelry sales suffer from higher prices and the decimation of discretionary spending money continues to be obliterated by the stock market.

To: bobby beara who wrote (83427)	9/25/2002 10:14:09 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Who would of ever thought that the "Market Direction Discussion" would be as much about gold as about the Nasdaq........and that the majority of the posts on the Nasdaq would be predicting much lower prices before the market turns around? Curious for comments from those that are bullish on gold.....what are the fundamentals that will drive gold up? Although I don't follow gold prices very closely, my perception over the last year has been that gold prices (like oil prices) have been strong due to the "War on Terror" and the common knowledge that Bush was going to go after Iraq. Other than that, inflation still looks well controlled as the economic recover is slow and manufacturing capacity utilization is far below the levels that spur inflation. The weak dollar is bullish for gold, but I don't see a weakening dollar as a long term trend. So, anyone that follows gold closely and is bullish over the next year or so, I'm curious what you think will drive it. Tom

To: bobby beara who wrote (83427)	9/25/2002 10:15:40 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 99985

Hi Bob. Dunno. As you know, not primarily a ST player. And the golds are the toughest sector for me to time. The reason I've done well with them (despite missing a few pieces in the major uptrend to date) is because I got in early. And that was based more on FA than TA as can be seen from this old post. Message 16222228 Actually year ago April was 1st time - in probably 20 years - to get back into a heavy portfolio weighting in PM stocks. But not in recent months. Right now 75% cash, 10% physical and very light in gold stocks with a 10% weighting in a few core issues. Vast majority of my work, over the years, has been in energy sector. Most recently sold heavily there about 2 weeks ago after about an anemic 2 weeks rally that was nicely profitable, but certainly no home runs in this market.<g> Using the mountain of cash from that exit to reload the golds when they get into my buy windows. Best regards, Iso