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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83432)	9/25/2002 11:28:54 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 99985

Tom Pulley So, anyone that follows gold closely and is bullish over the next year or so, I'm curious what you think will drive it. I don't follow it closely, but I recently took a long position in gold. My reasoning, in part, has several components: 1). Since the US dollar appears to be weaker than the last few years, gold can provide a hedge against declining dollar value; 2). It has had a 20+ year bear market, so I believe downside is limited; 3). It acts as an insurance policy against steep declines in the US equities; 4). I think the central banks are probably getting done with the selling they've been doing for a good many years. 5). China is starting to increase it's gold treasury. TimbaBear

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83432)	9/26/2002 12:05:26 AM
From: Sweet Ol	Respond to of 99985

<Gold FA> Historically, gold is where people put their money when they are afraid of currancies and equities. Primarily in other countries. This recession and market melt down is world-wide. If people start moving significant amounts from equities to gold the supply is inadequate, therefore the price goes up, which increases the perceived value of gold as a hedge. If you think the market has make a bottom, then it is a poor investment vehicle. If you thing there is a lot more to downside to come, then it is a good place to be. There are a lot of other reasons having to do with CBs and derivatives, but I think those are not as important. BWDIK? Best to all, JRH

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83432)	9/26/2002 10:24:24 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Gold as an investment vehicle is now a recurring mindset. This will feed upon itself until it reaches crescendo, then crash again. I think it will be very gappy, followed by back and fill periods. What is amazing is the average Joe in Japan is just recently ramping up savings in gold instead of yen. I think this foreshadows a total lack of confidence in the Japanese rebound scenario. I know a lot of people were saying this is the kind of contrarianism which marks bottoms but I do not believe that Japan will be able to pull itself out of depression without big banking defaults, especially with the US economy heading south.

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83432)	9/26/2002 9:47:12 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Who would of ever thought that the "Market Direction Discussion" would be as much about gold as about the Nasdaq<<< tom, gold has been discussed on this thread since it's inception - along with every other market that trades, even though it's the barbaric metal and this barbaric metal still has some relevancy as a currency as do other commodities, it has it's place in modern market analysis, as does oil, soybeans, pork bellies, yen futures, and csco call and put options. these are all liquid markets that trade daily. while the recent triangle i pointed out in gold broke to the downside, if you wanted to make money in the markets on the long side in the last year, there have been few sectors, gold stocks, defense stocks, homebuilders, etc. The gold sector provides more volitility than the tech sector, for somebody who trades it with a modicum of accuracy and limit losses with stops, can make money. people as emotional about the barbaric metal as they are about their yahoo stock -g-