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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (7483)	9/29/2002 5:44:57 PM
From: habitrail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

The so-called Wave theory is intriguing, but I get a little skeptical when people pull out the "double fibonacci retracement" stuff. I can buy into a fractal structure being one of the properties of stock indices. What I have a problem with is the attempt to cloak that qualitative observation in quantitative garb by assigning a mathematical model that, in fact, does not describe the behavior any better than another well-studied area - random processes. You have stated your background in the past, so you can probably choose better than I can the best noise model to use to describe the market and I know your point was only to take from the article that the market drop will be bigger and take longer this time than it did in 1929, but you could just say that. The article you chose does not really back up that assertion any better than the old adage "the bigger they are, the harder they fall".