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Strategies & Market Trends : ZixIt Corporation (ZIXI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaveMG who wrote (3925)	9/27/2002 3:45:47 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 4120

Look at your own phrasing for the pro-ZIXI case: "I'm wondering what'll happen if it turns out" "starts signing up" "they seem to really believe" "could be an interim period where things start looking better" "things could get quite uncomfortable for those short, before the ultimate outcome is actually knowable" Can you imagine writing a business plan and pitching it to a VC company with that kind of attitude? This is the same "hope ZIXI doesn't fail this time" rhetoric we have heard for years. If it doesn't work ZIXI goes to zero eventually. The odds of success are very, very thin.

To: DaveMG who wrote (3925)	9/27/2002 10:30:36 AM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4120

"Viral" marketing is just another way of saying marketing on the cheap. Zix HAS to "believe" in viral marketing, because they simply can't afford an active marketing campaign. Unfortunately it's been seen to bomb -- and spectacularly so -- as recently as last year, when their target market was individual consumers. Even an Editor's Choice award from PC Magazine couldn't net them more than a few thousand ZixMail customers, when their goal had been 600,000. Even the shorts were surprised at the magnitude of that failure. Your "why take the risk going after the crums" question might be better directed at the shorts in companies like Nortel and Lucent, where the prices are under a buck and still the shorts press onward. Relative to the shorts' risk in those stocks, this one is all but a sure thing.