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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (19607)	9/28/2002 10:40:51 AM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Gold Commercials action 96-99 Looking closely at the chart of the COTs I see that the commercial during the period were quite adroit at buying the breaks and selling the intervening rallies as evidence by the swings in their net position. They were at their most long prior to the bottom though they too seem to have been shaken out by the last drop, or converted long futures position to physical.. They were most short at the $400 tops and now again at the $325 crests. With open interest now lower than it was in the 90's their statement would seem to be loader. There is no point in the history when the Commercials have been 80K net short that the price of Gold hasn't been at a peak and subsequently fallen. This fits with what Saville says. "the commercials tend to be right at important turning points.... Speculators, on the other hand, ... wrong when a trend change occurs." There is an element of the retrospective in that observation. There is no precluding the commercials getting more short and the small investors and non commercials more long and for the ratios and absolute numbers then getting more extreme. Bulls would have to be hope so, but there will have to be motivation for the buyers to increase their open interest and the commercials, one would expect, have the greater staying power. I appreciate alternative perspectives. sharelynx.net