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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (47943)	9/29/2002 1:05:46 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Nadine - The FSU peaked at 12,000 kb/d for several years before 1990. The historical data and the projections I see show that they are expected to peak again at less than 10,000 kb/d by 2010. In contrast SA & Iraq, still have its whole oil producing future ahead of it. In the intermediate term the FSU producers can compete with SA & Iraq as they still have some capacity to increase production. But the future lays with the countries that have all the reserves, Iraq & SA. I am strong believer that oil production will peak on the globe within 10-15 years and that we must begin to prepare ourselves for the consequences such as higher prices and more influence by whoever controls Iraq & SA. USA's peak oil production passed 20 years ago, unless something changes dramatically our natural gas production peak has occurred as well. So watch for the fireworks over the next year, the colder the Winter the sooner the show starts. hubbert.mines.edu