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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: long-gone who wrote (15706)	9/29/2002 3:12:06 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81105

long-gone, thank you for your extensive post. I will attempt to answer it sentence by sentence. >Is S.A. a net petroleum exporter or importer? SA has no petroleum of its own. However it can make about 30% of requirements from coal >How's the economy in S.A.? tottering on the edge of a great depression - as is the rest of the world? SA economy is not doing well but that's more because of problems in the country such as the attempt of the government to introduce more blacks into the work-place and the emigration of many skilled whites. However, the economy is doing better than Argentina or Brazil. >Guess an even better question is are the largest economies on earth net petroleum exporters or importers? USA - importer, Europe - importer Japan - importer - by greater % than the prior two. You answered that yourself. >Have you thought about that which happen next after the US takes out Saddam? Very much so, and read quite a bit. The balance of opinion is that it will not be of benefit to the US either immediately or in the longer term unless a large multinational force can be involved and the UN is fully behind the operation. And, even than, it may not be. rense.com >The world's largest most efficient petroleum concerns move in & rework the fields - repair the rigs & start pumping at rates unseen since before Saddam came into power - and the back of OPEC is broken for all time. This will result in a 10-25% price reduction at the pump in the US. It will result in a 5-7$ reduction in Japan, & a 3-5% reduction in pump price in Europe! There will be a 8-12% reduction in price of jet fuel & will show a spin-off result of less petroleum wasted in enforcing the no fly zone over Iraq. Thus longer range tourism can have a chance at recovery & the cost of world transit of imports / exports will be reduced. This is the same as a NET WORLD TAX CUT! I do understand that a massive increase in oil production could theoretically lower the oil price. However, as I understand it, there is already an "unofficial" production increase of 2 million bbs per day, largely because of Saudi Arabia's concern not to embarrass the US. I would think that the present price of around $30/bbl is because of fears that production in Iraq could be disrupted for an extensive period. It is not because of a shortfall in production. >Have you checked out tourism figures for any major world destination for the last 8 months? Near absolute failure! Yes, I know, and airlines are being hit again. >Next, The people of Iraq who have been forced into poverty will have immediate work & those working hard in the oil fields will consume far more food & any surplus of world food will be reduced - and these workers will be able to afford food - instead of smuggled-in starvation level food hand-outs from world aid groups. It's a nice thought. >Lastly, the world's technology is perhaps only 60-72 months away from viable safe economical FUEL CELLS for automotive transportation - if all goes well - if the companies have enough money to spend on R&D! If not, this might stretch into 15 YEARS! Yes, I have seen programs about that on TV but I thought it was still very experimental and not available for the mass market in the foreseeable future >If we do this now, clean low cost transportation is within the grasp of every person in the world - in our lifetimes - if not, the technology roll-out might be forestalled by another 25-75 years before reaching the poorest nations! I'm not sure what you mean by "do this now"? Do you mean take out Saddam? Or develop fuel cells? >This is the difference between a world wide depression & resulting world war - from which man won't survive - & a chance at continued progress. I think there could easily be a world wide recession but I don't think that the fuel component, although very important, will be the deciding factor. More critical is the US economy and the ability of the US consumer to keep buying, particularly in the face of his falling savings and a falling stockmarket. And, I not even talking about the high debt burden or the property bubble. >Oh, & btw you're concerned about the spread of radical Islam into S.A. Yes, I am. And it is already here, in SA, big time. >- the rest of the world? Of course. Who isn't? > If Radical Islam is robbed of petrodollars it is more quickly & surely stopped than with all the arms & bullets & armies in all of the non-Moslem world! I understand your feeling but this is where we disagree. As far as I am concerned, the real threat is Islamic Fundamentalism, ie religious fanaticism. Saddam may be a bad guy who gases his people and whatever, but he is NOT a religious fanatic. In fact, I presume he is just like you and me as far as religion is concerned. And, this is what I posted yesterday --- he is also frightened of Islamic Fundamentalism and is trying to stop it. In other words, he has common cause with both of us. >Saddam isn't only holding his people & economy hostage, he is harming the economy of the entire world I'm not sure about that. Iraq is suffering under UN sanctions. I don't see where Saddam is harming the economy of the world. All he produces is oil and any shortfall in his production can easily be made up by an increase in production elsewhere. New oilfields are coming on stream in Africa and in Central Asia and so he doesn't have the ability to hold anyone to financial ransom these days. >- and without need as Iraq has a much richer natural geography than many of the other oil economies of the middle east. Yes. Iraq is said to have the world's second biggest known oil reserves. But then again, the new oilfields near the Caspian Sea are said to have an even greater potential than those near the Persian Gulf. >Iraq can survive & perhaps even prosper in a free market democracy. The Iraqis want nothing more than to have the sanctions lifted and then get on with exactly what you have said. They don't want war. The idea that they do is part of a comprehensive agenda for Mid East domination produced by Mr Perle's and Mr Rumsfeld's "think tanks" and whoever else.. > With no change the Iraqi national economy & people are doomed - when the oil does run out & or the petroleum economy ends. I don't agree. I think if Iraq was left alone it would be OK even with its dictator and no democracy. In fact, which Arab country has democracy? Indeed, one is more tyrannical than the next. Probably the worst is Saudi Arabia which is the US' big friend.