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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trumptown who wrote (55662)	9/30/2002 4:57:05 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

SR That would be my question to Rande also. 650 mill is not a huge amount I believe. With Iraq hanging over all our heads, I wouldn't pretend to be able to read the broad markets future here. ( I never could anyways.<g>) I think you and Mark and Mouff are playing it perfectly...scalp, nimble and stops. My gut says markets not going up for a long time. What I don't know, will it be sideways or more major down? Defense posture required. BTW..hope you're well you old bird. Regards C

To: Trumptown who wrote (55662)	9/30/2002 7:01:29 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . . Contingency Plans . . . . . No, Sting, regarding the comment of investors flocking to gold. . . I was merely repeating what I had heard . . . which was the reaction by investors to what they seem to smell in the wind. I mean look at all the subjective and anecdotal indicators. . . foreclosures are shooting up. . . banks have already begun auction liquidations with limited success. . . credit card defaults are still on the rise. . . consumer confidence is still breaking down. . . major corporations are taking turns filing bankruptcy. . . white collar jobs are becoming scarce . . . investors are increasingly moving into gold. . . war is on the horizon. . . Sometimes it helps to stop and take a wide angle picture of where we are and where we may be headed. As optimistic as I like to stay in my view of the world, I must say that I am having a difficult time finding reasons why the U.S. and world economies should be improving. . . .especially when matched up to the reasons why they should continue weakening. My fear is that the "spiral effect" that happens with a shrinking economy, tends to gain momentum much like a flushed toilet. So the question is: "in which part of the flush are we currently?" As far as gold goes per se, yes it is safe, but it is very rarely a good investment and almost never a good trade. We played it for a single month once as I recall. Silver did quite well in the early 80's, since it rose at higher percentages than gold. Those who play the futures markets can do well with metals. But for us equity investors, it is far more difficult to prosper from moves in metals. The mines are still not a good business, regardless of the price of gold. And that is what is represented by gold stocks. What will it take to turn the economy around? We should make a list, so that we can easily recognize the signs. One thing I would be watching is large investors jumping into the market with both feet. A rising market can pull an economy out of the dumps faster than anything I know. And now that we have some serious capitulation of the small investor, there is little reason left why larger investors should stay out, should the underlying fundamentals sufficiently improve. . . or we stop all wars . . . or ???? Honestly, I believe that most small investors should be looking closely at their homes, their credit card debt, possessions they no longer use or need and begin prioritizing the things they cannot live without and the things they can. . . .so that liquidation can be swift. Again, I believe that a severe recession will be marked by a glut of inventory and radical markdowns, with still no consumer buyers. I can see towns full of signs: "SALE! Everything in store 60% off!" . . . "75% off!!". . . . with nobody attending until it reaches LESS than 10 cents on the dollar. I fear that congress will place limitations on consumer bankruptcies, to limit the exposure by the major credit banks. If that happens, it will be dreadful for those trying to get out from under their debt burden. The time to consider your contingency plan is now. . . not when the herd acts!! States like Florida and Texas have generous homestead acts, where your home cannot be taken from you, no matter what it is worth and what you owe. I could imagine advantages in selling homes in the San Francisco Bay area, where the average is nearly a half million per home. . . . . on the flip side buying foreclosures in Florida after about 1 1/2 to 2 years could be quite lucrative. So yes, there is still money to be made in real estate for those who have the guts to play hard ball. As for stocks, I doubt it will be the place to invest any time soon. If I were to invest in a corporation now, I would want to make sure I was on the board of directors and had access to the latest accounting figures. How different is my thinking from someone's grandma in Springfield, Missouri? . . . who has already lost 60 to 80% of her retirement portfolio of "blue chips" . . . now she is gunshy of investing where she has no control. Where brokers fail, people take their own reigns. . . that is just human nature. I guess, the moral of this story is to keep your eyes and ears open. . . but more importantly to keep an open mind . . . looking for ALL types of opportunity. Whatever may come, there is still money to be made by the sharpest minds. Rande Is