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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (48353)	9/30/2002 8:29:48 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Intelligent comment on the current state of Palestinian politics: Palestinian Power Politics by Elliot Chodoff The most recent Israeli move against Yasir Arafat has drawn criticism from home and abroad, from many different angles. The US is concerned about its ability to attack Saddam; the Europeans condemn anything Israel does; the Israeli left fears the IDF has gone too far; the Israeli right feels that it has not gone far enough; the Arab regimes fear that Arafat's death may lead to chaos and his ouster might make him their unwelcome guest. Glaringly absent in the outcry are the voices of the Palestinian leadership outside Arafat's immediate circle. Certainly Saeb Ereikat and abu Mazen have called for an end to the Israeli siege, and there have been a few well organized and poorly attended demonstrations in support of the chairman, but the fact is that most Palestinians - leaders and rank-and-file - just wish he would disappear. Over the past months there has come a realization (better late than never) on the part of the Palestinians that Arafat is leading them to disaster. As we noted ("Israel's Arafat Dilemma," Archives January 23, 2002) many of his subordinates would like very much to be rid of him, but are afraid to act directly. In recent weeks, they have gotten bolder, opposing him in the Palestinian Assembly and generally expressing their displeasure. The next generation of potential leaders has begun to choose sides, and the first signs of a struggle for positioning has begun. Arafat has responded true to form: threats have been received by Palestinian leaders like abu Mazen, and a burst of automatic weapons fire was directed at the home of another. The message is clear: don't threaten Arafat's already shaky position. The Israeli humiliation of Arafat in his headquarters has not improved his standing in the Palestinian street: it has demonstrated not only his impotence but also his "ability" to manage the utter destruction of his own political center. It has not been lost on Palestinians that wherever Arafat goes destruction follows, and there were references made to Beirut of the 1970's in interviews with passersby in Ramallah this week. This is a development worth watching as his popularity was always his ace-in-the-hole against political rivals (see "The Arafat Shuffle," Archives, July 5, 2002). It may be too early to eulogize him politically or biologically, but Arafat's standing suffered a serious setback this week. The power struggle amoing the heirs-to-be has also begun. It remains to be seen whether it will stay within civilized parameters. We wouldn't count on it. chodoff.blogspot.com