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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (4012)	10/1/2002 7:35:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

If I misread your post I apologize but it looks like you are implying recovery is near impossible. Lizzie Recovery IS impossible. Did LTCM ever make a new high? Did ENE ever make a new high? Did tulips ever make a new high after the plunge. Yes 20-50 years from now when there is a new set of suckers the naz might make a new high. Do you want to bet on that now? M

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (4012)	10/1/2002 11:42:03 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10157

Mish is correct...it is impossible to recover once a bubble has popped as the forces in action which worked to create the bubble now work in reverse to destroy what caused it. Neither the FED nor any government will have the power to stop it. History suggests that every single market bubble has suffered the same fate going back over 600 years and there have been plenty of them. In most cases, the bubble returned all the way back to the start point with some even going below the start point. I invite you to read one of my favorite books, "Manias, Panics and Crashes" by Charles Kindleberger. Bull or Bear it is a truly educational piece of literature as Charles does an excellent job of laying out not just the past bubbles but the underlying causes and effects and the mechanics of a bubble. Every bubble in the past has had the exact same mechanics and this one is no different. In fact, when you read the book, you'll be amazed at how similar a path we are tracing out. Here is the book... booksamillion.com The art market and the California real estate market were likely bubbles in progress with a move up retrace and then move higher. However, I also place less significance on a bubble involving an isloated niche like this. Our current market bubble is history's greatest without a doubt as it involves many different sectors. It will take years to play out and the popping effect alone will take years to happen as well as excess capital is shifted around and expanded until it can find no more safe havens. It started with the Nasdaq, more specifically the dot-coms as most of these are now penny stocks or bankrupt, but that's not where it ends. The excess credit expansion has continued to grow and has shifted to the DOW whichy is popping now then real estate which should find a top this year. The bond and treasury market are next and will pop as well. After that...there isn't much left and most credit and money should be well on its way to be destroyed.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (4012)	10/2/2002 4:08:58 AM
From: mish5000	Respond to of 10157

Hi Lizzie, think of it this way....... You have a large building with a rotting core; from the outside - a few windows are broken, the paint is fading and the roof is a little lopsided. Yeh it looks bad, but you could do a little paint job, straighten things out and things appear to be 'normal' again. Now take a look inside.... the water pipes are rusty, the floorboards are rotting, the ceilings are caving in and there is rising damp all over the walls.... You could spend countless days and thousands of dollars 'patching' it up, or you could knock it down and start again. Of course with an economy the size of the US's, you can't just tear it down and start again. You can keep patching away at all the leaks, but you know the underlying problems are still going to be there. Again, I don't want to be too alarming or overly pessimistic but - in the end there can ONLY be one logical outcome..... and that is to start again.