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To: KevinThompson who wrote (4019)	10/1/2002 10:24:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 10157

MSFT will NOT trade below cash value (as long as it has no debt). But that is a mere 7.5 in price. So 30-20 or lower is certainly possible. I would buy MSFT at cash value and put 100% on it. But that is one H of a long way from here. M

To: KevinThompson who wrote (4019)	10/1/2002 11:54:05 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10157

My bet is that MSFT won't have that big cash hoard forever. The only reason they have it is because they don't return a dividend to investors, and supplement their earnings via option writing in the market as well as cash obtained from insiders excercising their options. Strip out the latter two and MSFT hasn't made a dime since 1995. Once MSFT will have to start expensing options, that will put a further damper on earnings and forget paying a dividend...they can't do it. Their too busy using extra cash outside of the current hoard to buy up extra shares on the open market that they just gave the insiders via stock options. On top of that, MSFT doesn't have enough cash even with the 40 billion to buy back all the stock option shares on the open market that are currently out there unexcercised. That means shareholders are going to get screwed through stock dilution by a significant factor. Finally, don't count on them to have fantastic growth like they did. They are now a mega industry at a mature status Growth should be pegged at 5-10% maximum per year if they are lucky. By the way...CSCO is in the same boat and future competition from China could be a serious thorn in their side for the future.