Hello Maurice, Your <<QUALCOMM>> and <<graviton>> are some what related to the coming abracadabra, but are not direct enough for my taste. I am, at the beginning and end of any day, an optimist, and I sense a stirring disturbance in the Force. I must start to buy China concept shares, especially those yielding a sustainable and juicy dividend higher than available with US Treasuries, that fragile and risky financial instrument:0)
Yes, it is time to make progressively bigger moves, I think, and maybe even borrowing Yen for extra capacity.
Danger simply lurks everywhere, but still I must edge out of the crawl space, close combat sub-machine gun in hand, sniper rifle abandoned. Belly crawl, slowly, slowly, without a sound.
On August 15th of 2001 (see reference below) I first spoke to you about abracadabra, a word first mentioned on this thread by Elmat (via PM to me) who had observed that financial markets and human progress are inspired by abracadabra, and if we of the thread are able to identify them in time, as in not too early but not too late, we will be better off.
Since that time, we have had several bad abracadabras that inspired financial markets in uninspired ways.
Today I did this on market open:
Message 18060919
… because, especially after my recent journey described here:
Message 17959989
I was struck by a feeling that amidst all the gloom, there is one glimmer of an abracadabra that may work financial magic during 2003.
The feeling clawed at my subconsciousness for a few weeks, until a burst of recognition hit me during this recent trip:
Message 18050271
… boom, I have been at this juncture before. Barton Biggs at a Business Week CEO Conference in 1993 triggered the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s Red Chip mania with the words “After eight days in China, I'm tuned in, overfed and maximum bullish”. A much younger and more naïve Jay was a featured speaker at the conference in Shanghai.
mtholyoke.edu
QUOTE
Investment Analysts Predict
How do these speculative swings come about?
Part of the answer is changes in market sentiment because of pronouncements by people like Barton Biggs. One of the gray-haired elders of Wall Street, Biggs, 65, the chief global investment strategist for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., commands the attention of pension fund managers in Illinois and around the world.
In an industry that has drifted toward computer models and number crunchers, Biggs is a generalist who is famous for his brilliantly written investment reports, which are often funny and always influential.
In 1993, in typical seat-of-the-pants style, he made a weeklong trip to China and came out starry-eyed. He urged investors to increase their holdings of Hong Kong stocks sixfold, to 7 percent of a global stock portfolio.
"We were all stunned by the enormous size of China," he declared. "Sometimes you have to spend time in a country to get really focused on the investment case. After eight days in China, I'm tuned in, overfed and maximum bullish."
Hong Kong stocks soared at those words, and gained 28 percent over the next seven weeks. Then, in August 1994, Biggs declared that the smaller Asian markets -- Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong -- would be "the best place in the world to be for the next five years."
Biggs' comments were representative of Wall Street's euphoria about Asia.
UNQUOTE
On the same Google search looking for Barton’s quote above, I found:
Message 18061857
which then led me to this:
Message 18061810
and this:
Message 18061821
all written by a ‘pessimistic’ person, no doubt;0)
Chugs, Jay
References to abracadabra:
Message 16212324
August 15th, 2001
“… We must lead the village idiots to the volcanic abyss of Inflation or the black hole of Deflation, to be sacrificed to the gods of work, thrift, family and savings. I am being optimistic and am of course assuming that all the market noise and propaganda smoke is not in fact camouflaging an inflection point connecting Silicon Glory to an as yet unknown “next abracadabra”, as the Rust Belt was once transformed into Silicon Glory but accompanied by much dying anguish and birthing pain.”
Message 16320624
September 9th, 2001
“Financial markets exist to fund projects, but gets truly energized, allowing outsized returns, mostly based on allegedly good and then supposedly better ideas. Over on the CFC thread, we term this as an ‘abracadabra’.”
Message 16439637
October 1st, 2001
“I took CB’s topic as “assuming recovery is underway, what then are on the shopping list”, and Elmat’s much earlier topic as, “what can the next abracadabra be, assuming life goes on?” I do not doubt the eventual correctness of CB and Elmat’s premise, and so engaged in a bit of blue-sky speculation or dark storm meandering of the mind.”
Message 16640110
November 11th, 2001
“… except I will change 1400 to 1000, 1% to 2%, 2001 to 2002, partly because of the still pervasive and all corrupting commercial cronyism, certain and expected state intervention in markets, zero sum productivity effects, questionable corporate accounting, emptied national treasuries, raided personal nests, voided economic statistics, famine, war, pestilence, and the still absence of a glimmering but doubtful abracadabra worthy of human imagination and hope, but more because of the strong state of denial of what had taken place, its causes, and the absolute absence of calling to accounts of those responsible.”
Message 16764149
December 8th, 2001
“Before the onset of next abracadabra there first must be a Collapse, and we are collapsing, except the world no longer seems to work quite as we expected per Collapse script, because our script was still based on logic, as opposed to exhaustion, whereas the ‘fight’ left in governments, institutions, and J6P are still plentiful, and thus making the script of collapse playing out longer than I had guessed. “
… On abracadabra, it is instigated by human capital, launched by financial capital, and kept aloft by media capital. Human capital is getting cheaper by the day, and media capital is getting better by the day. Once financial capital is no longer abused, there will be plenty of abras and cadabras to go around, bigger than ever, better to be enjoyed by those able to secure what financial capital they already have. “
Message 16824450
December 22nd, 2001
“No Maurice, do not do it! You are about to step into, not the time portal, but the microwave oven!
For ‘risk-less’ profit, we need abracadabra that Elmat is trying to identify, that you think you have found in QCOM.”
Message 16824450
December 22nd, 2001
“On the subject of abracadabra. We need not only new ideas offering neat benefits in a better way at a lower cost, to be implemented with new funding from fresh gullible speculators, but also ideas that can capture the imagination of the global investing electorates. We need abra of scale and cadabra of mystery. We need non-matter that can be leveraged highly by sheer thought or matter valued higher still by utter baseless imagination …”
Message 16848381
December 31st, 2001
“The only abracadabra I can think of that would be of significant and sufficient momentum is really cheap assets of all classes in all territories, people willing to do hard work for a honest pay, small governments, low taxes, savings, capital formation, sustainable spending, prudent investment, conservative balance sheets, transparent reporting, peace, et cetera”
siliconinvestor.com
June 23, 2002
“Generally, as agreed with DAK before, getting into front line position for the next abracadabra of (a) resources, (b) emerging markets (not yet '(c) gene anything and chromo everything else' - way too early still). ”
Message 17701110
July 5th, 2002
“As the American officialdom and electorates seemingly and single-mindedly focus on the mechanics of simple political freedom, and focus on it in a mostly disingenuous (Venezuela democracy bad, Saudi monarchy good, China reform bad, Japan reform good) and unilateral manner, the construct will invariably diminish in meaning and influence, in a matter of passing of time and realization of truth, and eventually give way to the next new thing. Abracadabra.”
Message 17743661
July 16th, 2002
“I am an optimist. I do not actually believe 1.odd billion folks can be misruled for sustained period, especially in an age of photons and whatnot. I think, in big picture stock-speak, China is the next big secular abracadabra, and the world will be a better place as a result. I sometimes have my doubts and thus fear, and so think about Tobago.”
Message 17844593
August 6th, 2002
“(j) until the next abracadabra ends this awful interim, in leadership, economic driver, and world order”
Message 17860743
August 10th, 2002
“You know what folks say about absolute power and all, and I suspect China will be in the nick of scratching time to save us all; abracadabra, and if not, we are then ALL doomed:0)”
Message 17860853
August 10th, 2002
“So, I think we must look elsewhere. There may already be some signs, and these may be false signs. I believe changes are rarely obvious, until one fine day, boom, abracadabra, they are upon us.”
Message 17868507
August 12th, 2002
“Here in Hong Kong, we do not claim to have genuine democracy, but we do have true freedom and genuine free trade, and the last time I checked, Hong Kong is not an independent country, but part of a bigger and inexorable trend, possibly culminating in the next abracadabra. This is my hope. If I am proven wrong and disappointed, then Tobago beckons.” |
