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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (48995)	10/2/2002 8:33:44 PM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

God help us if our elected officials started catering to your mindset. Oops, they are. God help us.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (48995)	10/2/2002 8:35:48 PM
From: KLP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

From Asia Times Sept 24, 2002: "Iraq may well have nukes"... atimes.com Middle East Sep 24, 2002 ANALYSIS Iraq may well have nukes By Marc Erikson You doubt it? Think again and consider this September 13 Pravda (yes, Pravda, the reformed former Soviet propaganda sheet) headline: "200 SOVIET NUKES LOST IN UKRAINE". Who says so? None other than Petro Symonenko, the leader of the (opposition) Ukrainian Communist Party. According to Symonenko, speaking at a public meeting in Kharkiv (eastern Ukraine) on September 11, there were 2,400 nuclear warheads in Ukraine when the Soviet Union disintegrated, although the transfer to Russia (supposedly completed in 1997) of only 2,200 of them has been officially documented. "The fate of the remaining 200 warheads is unknown," Symonenko said, claiming his information was based on the findings of a now-defunct parliamentary commission. Serhiy Sinchenko, head of the parliamentary investigation, admitted that some of the warheads had been "lost". This is, of course, not the first time that claims about missing nukes have been made. On September 7, 1997, former Russian national security adviser General Alexander Lebed (who died in a helicopter crash in Siberia in April of this year) told the US CBS News' 60 Minutes program that the Russian military had lost track of over 100 suitcase-size one-kiloton nuclear bombs produced in the 1970s for the Soviet intelligence services (KGB, GRU). There is also ample documentation of smuggling and theft of weapons-grade nuclear materials. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported 175 nuclear smuggling incidents since 1993, 18 of which involved highly enriched uranium, the key ingredient in an atomic bomb. A new database by the Institute for International Studies at Stanford University terms the protection of nuclear and radioactive material "woefully inadequate" and records 643 cases of smuggling and theft. Russian authorities say that in the past three years alone, they have broken up hundreds of nuclear-material smuggling deals. They say their nuclear weapons are under "safe and reliable" protection, but admit that nuclear materials are less well-protected, including storage sites for an estimated 1,100 metric tons of highly enriched uranium and 160 metric tons of plutonium. What's most troubling about the Symonenko claims is the existence of a tape recording examined by US intelligence and said to confirm high-level Ukrainian involvement in selling high-tech weapons to Iraq. The tape, made by a bodyguard who has since fled Ukraine, records a conversation between Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and the head of the country's military export service, Valeriy Malev. It is said to contain evidence of military sales to Iraq of Kalchuga radar equipment through shadowy Jordanian middle men. (Malev could not be questioned because he died in a mysterious road accident in March.) The fact that Kuchma has recently boasted of his warm links with Iraq adds credibility to US suspicions that Ukrainian nuclear materials (if not whole weapons) may have come into Iraqi possession. Such and related concerns were behind the extensive, four-day search at sea by the US Coast Guard and federal agencies of the Liberian-registered "Palermo Senator" container vessel after radiation traces were detected in its hold when it steamed into New York on September 9. The search came up empty. But the incident was regarded as sufficiently serious to consign US Vice President Dick Cheney to a secure place on the night of September 9. All that may appear to be Tom Clancy Sum of all Fears material. It would not, however, be played out in reality if it weren't for reliable information that nuclear weapons or radiological devices ("dirty bombs") were in the hands of terrorists or states supporting them. The task of searching through 2,600 20-foot containers carried out by members of the US Nuclear Emergency Security Team and Navy SEALS would not have been undertaken just for the hell of it. When it comes to possible Iraqi nuclear capabilities, the US government has plenty more concerns than it is prepared to acknowledge in public - and specialized aluminum tubes usable in the construction of centrifuges to separate weapons-grade from natural uranium are not at the top of the list. It's a long way from assembling a centrifuge to the production of enough enriched uranium to make a bomb. Classified Bush administration briefings to Congress have included varieties of evidence indicating that Iraq has covertly acquired sufficient amounts of weapons-grade materials to assemble a nuclear explosion device, though it may still lack an appropriate delivery vehicle. Procurement of weapons materials as well as components to upgrade missile technology has since the 1980s been in the hands of Al Amn al-Khas, the most secretive of Iraq's multitude of covert action services and special forces. Though parts of the worldwide Al Amn al-Khas network of front companies and organizations have been uncovered by Western intelligence services, much of it has remained intact and active in Iraqi efforts to frustrate UN trade sanctions. Could the network over the past several years have obtained the 100kg or so of highly enriched uranium (HEU) required for the production of two or three crude nuclear weapons of the simplest assembly type ("gun assembly")? It would not have been easy. But with money no real object and an estimated cost of between $25-50 million, it can hardly be ruled out. Would the know-how and assembly facilities have been available? Certainly. Iraq prior to 1991 ran a multi-billion dollar nuclear weapons program that employed hundreds of scientists and thousands of engineers and technicians. Due to the very low neutron emission rate of HEU, even very low technology can produce a high probability of high yield detonation. Low-tech weapons would be quite large; but higher-tech weapons assembly (implosion type, using neutron deflectors) to produce smaller high-yield detonation would also probably not be beyond Iraqi scientific and technical capabilities. Israeli intelligence believes that Saddam Hussein possesses three or more 10-kiloton-yield bombs as well as some dirty bombs. The former are likely too large and heavy for ballistic-missile delivery, but could be transported by truck and placed in the vicinity of advancing enemy troops. Some consider such assumptions as Israeli scare propaganda or deliberate disinformation. But the probability that Iraq has attained a rudimentary nuclear capability is sufficiently high for war planners to take it into serious account. (©2002 Asia Times Online Co Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (48995)	10/2/2002 8:39:58 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

"And now we're locked and cocked to "unload" on anyone who even thinks about looking at us cross-eyed." And that gunslinger attitude is in a nutshell what makes the rest of the world hesitate to believe and back US military initiatives. And before you say it, I know, to hell with you all we'll do it alone. C

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (48995)	10/2/2002 8:51:06 PM
From: BCherry168	Respond to of 281500

"This is what that "European official" who commented about underestimating American "resolve", is talking about.. I perceive the "silent majority" of American politics, Joe6Pack if you will, is perfectly willing to see the US "drain the swamp", pave the land, and sell it to the highest bidder, if it means that it lessens any future opportunity for someone to directly attack us as they did on 9/11." Hawk, you said it all. The Europeans can either lead, follow, or get the H**l out of the way. They may want to fuss about the niceties of diplomacy, etc., but the US does not. We will give the guy (Saddam) a brief chance to do the right thing and disarm. If he doesn't do it forthwith, then we will take him out. The Europeans can join or not. I think they will. So will the Russians and the Chinese. That's the only way they will participate in the pie as it is cut up.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (48995)	10/2/2002 9:24:51 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<I think that there's evidence of a somewhat disturbing undercurrent present in Germany and much of Europe.> Yes, this undercurrent can't be denied but still there's a wide spectrum of opinions. It's not that Germans have suddenly become doves circulating around Saddam. As an example I have translated and appended an AP article summarizing an interview with Wolf Biermann who is a popular author and songwriter. He was a communist and lived in the GDR for many years but was expelled as a dissident in 1976 while he was touring West Germany. Former justice minister Mrs. Daeubler-Gmelin had to resign because of her alleged Bush-Hitler comparison. She didn't really compare them but wanted to highlight how Bush abuses foreign policy to divert from domestic problems. Schroeder is no better: his last-minute Iraq "trick" successfully drew the attention away from the structural problems of Germany. Not that all of the German electorate is that gullible - but 2% were sufficient for Schroeder to win. Offending US feelings was a tasteless sacrifice for a victory which might turn out to be a Pyrrhic one. Here's a German biography of Biermann, with a photograph: dhm.de Wolf Biermann accuses Schroeder of a "dishonest trick" Saturday, September 28, 2002 The artist Wolf Biermann criticized the Iraq policy of chancellor Schroeder. The 65-year-old first praised Schroeder in the Cologne newspaper "Sunday Express": "I am pleased that he gets a second chance." But then he added: "However, it hurts me that he won with a 'dishonest trick'. Nobody can tell me that Schroeder is that naive. He very probably knows that 'unlimited solidarity' is as much a stupidity as 'unlimited non-solidarity'. These are two sides of the wrong medal." Foreign minister Joschka Fischer should now try to re-establish a normal relationship with the USA, Biermann said. A blind man with a crutch would have been able to see that the "peace rhetoric" was a last-minute election panic. The author and songwriter requested that totalitarian fanatics who are threatening mankind, who want to kill other peoples, who are committing genocide have to be fought by force if other means are exhausted. Biermann stated: "Nobody needs to explain to me that peace is better than war. I am privileged to have experienced war. I was in Hamburg when it was bombed and 60,000 citizens died in one night - not at the edge but in the center. In 1943 my mother took me on her back and swam with me through the channel away from the fire." He added: "I only live because people were fighting Hitler Germany and many gave their life for it." That the PDS [successor of the GDR communist party] failed to get into the Bundestag makes him obviously happy. "But it could be disadvantageous that they are now bathing in the darkness of not being in the spotlight of parliament and that Germans in east and west no longer have the opportunity to experience the squalidness and mendacity of these people." Biermann, angry: "How the heirs of GDR fat cats, who are historically proven militarists, were suddenly fighting for peace! You'd really have to be very young to not perceive their hypocrisy and cynicism." Link to the original: Samstag 28. September 2002, 13:27 Uhr Wolf Biermann wirft Schroeder verlogenen Trick vor de.news.yahoo.com