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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (23843)	10/4/2002 12:25:09 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

I'm simply pointing as a rebuttle that religion = evil. That is all. BUT as long as you mention it, no, I don't hear those words coming out of anyone of any leadership position, anywhere. DAK

To: pezz who wrote (23843)	10/4/2002 10:28:41 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Good morning Pezz, Today’s Report concerning: <<some time to kill … "Let the games begin!">> My wife and I got back from dinner very late last night (12:00 midnight Hong Kong or 12:00 noon New York) from our ‘touristy’ fishing village 10 minutes amble away. We gathered with some friends at a Spanish restaurant called El Cid. The restaurant is part of restaurant complex in Murrey House (I tried to look up a photograph of the place via google.com by inputting google.com And this was first up, my post to you dated June 16th, 2001 Message 15953489 ). I then looked for Murray House instead of Murrey House, and I got the correct photo reference dragonboat.org.hk . The building is nominated for a UN heritage award for 2002 and here is its history shuion.com.hk . The restaurant was not particularly full for a Friday night (No, this is not a post about doom and gloom in Hong Kong). We hadn’t been back in El Cid since the last time because the food was awful on opening day. Last night the food (finger food of chicken, fish, pork and squid, Spanish seafood fried rice, wines, accompanied by talks of a bubble gone by) was excellent. I had noted to myself that in the case of the restaurant I should have allowed a second visit to check on vitality and improvement, as opposed to dooming it to purgatory. Upon reach home, reflexive programming led me to my desk PC, and along the way, I turned on CNBC. I thought at the time, ‘plenty of red, but not enough red’. I deliberated on the matter of selling puts on PTR (ADR of Petro China traded in HK, yielding almost 6% - the yield info on US ADR internet sites are wrong), HBC (ADR of HSBC traded in HK, yielding 5%), and MO. I didn’t think the premium was rich enough and quickly went to bed, failing to wake up and check on matters before markets closing (4:00am HK time) as I sometimes manage to do. I am glad I did nothing on MO last night and missed another bullet that would have confined me to being an accidental LTBH investor, as opposed to a Christmas present stock flipper and equity stir-fryer. I am as optimistic as ever and, even better, more upbeat on the market as we close in on DJIA of <5000, Nasdaq <1000, and S&P <700. I suspect that those numbers, if hit, will give the all-clear signal for Emerging Markets to poke their coconuts and mangos out of the crawl space to test the weather. Even more excitingly, we may have an overshoot on the DJIA/Nasdaq/S&P. I am, as all are, concerned about an officialdom induced Japan style meandering of listless markets over a decade, but suspects that even in such a financial-scape, there will be plenty of hunting, gathering and killing to do. We are at a delicate moment, where a three-year bear market may stretch to 4, or even 6 years, and so I must be careful to be not too early, not too late, and end up with enough committed resources at or soon after the onset of recovery to make up for lost time. Then again, better lost time than lost money, because, at a certain level time does not equal money;0) For those who are interested, I either own starter-stakes in or am watching the following HK/China shares (all except the first one and the last three stocks pay a dividend of between 3.x-6.x%). HK/China (Shanghai & Shenzhen exchanges) shares can be looked up via codes provided on this site: home.boom.com.hk and when available via US exchange Bloomberg URL provided. Bank of China (HK.2388 baby.boom.com.hk ) China Shipping (HK.1138 baby.boom.com.hk , and in US quote.bloomberg.com ) China National Oceanic Oil Co, CNOOC (HK.883 baby.boom.com.hk , and in US quote.bloomberg.com ) Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corp (HK.5 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com ) Hutchison (HK.13 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com and quote.bloomberg.com ) Li & Fung (HK.494 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com ) Petro China (HK.857 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com ) Shanghai Industrial (HK.363 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com and quote.bloomberg.com ) Shangri-la Hotels (HK.69 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com and quote.bloomberg.com ) Sinopec (HK.386 baby.boom.com.hk , but not any of these search.bloomberg.com ) Tom.com (HK.8001 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com ) Phoenix TV (HK.8002 baby.boom.com.hk ) CK LifeSciences (HK.8222 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com ) LuJiaZui Development (Shanghai developer) (code 900932 for foreign B shares baby.boom.com.hk , or 600663 for domestic A shares baby.boom.com.hk ) and yes, there is a large discrepancy between the A and B share prices that will eventually close when A/B shares are both available to foreign and domestic investors, assuming China does not blow up). I generally shy away from HK/China shares because of my other asset exposure in these territory, and because: Message 16932911 “January 18th, 2002 Hi FR1, <<investing in China>> is a big topic, and I will try to keep it succinct, but not as short and snappy as simply responding, ‘do not do it, and do not even think about doing it’ ... As you had suggested, my caveat emptor footnotes … Message 16153454 Message 16172978 Message 16178484 Message 16182582 ” I would guess that of the Chinese/HK shares I already own, I own 15-20% of what I am willing to ultimately hold: Message 18054383 Message 18060919 Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (23843)	10/7/2002 1:47:22 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today’s Report: Tankers blowing up in the gulf, Japan tanking in Pacific, pacific confiscation deluge washing over Argentina, deluge of confiscation in Zimbabwe, Hong Kong on the precipice, Bush about to make speech, follow-on act by Greensputin. What to do? (a) I have activated and drawn on my Japanese Yen line of credit, and the funds (amounting to 5.2% of today’s NAV) will be available day after tomorrow, credited to my Yen a/c. I do not yet know what I will do with the Yen, but I know I will not be returning it to the Japanese;0) I will immediately (October 9th) convert most of the sure to be worth-less Japanese currency into soon to be worth-less USD, HKD, AUD, and EURO currencies. I will quickly use the various currencies to buy shares (or sell puts against). I may even buy some Japanese shares. (c) I received notification that my precious Hub Power of Pakistan will pay a dividend of USD 1.3844 per share (value date Sept 16th). I had bought my shares for USD 9.75 per share on July 16th 2002, and I suppose 14.2% for every few months is a fair return, courtesy of WATWOT effort: Message 17742648 QUOTE July 16th, 2002 BTW, my Hub Power (Pakistani power plant traded in London) got executed, as in bought, at USD 9.75 and below. I am now looking forward to increased WAT-WOT dividend payout over the coming 12 months of say around 30-40% yield. It will be a race against Axis of Evil and the Matrix of Doom, as in dividend recovery vs. capital wipeout, by lack of effective law, poor regulatory environment or nuclear winter. UNQUOTE Details of my Hub Power DD is here: Message 17738578 QUOTE July 15th, 2002 directly invested (my investments and speculations has little to do with politics) in the continuing televised success of WAT-WOT-whatnot via the London Stock Exchange: online.wsj.com. “First, Hubco's strong cash flow allows it to pay a historically rich cash dividend, now about 31%, which amounted to nearly 40% of its earnings per share in fiscal 2001. Second, Pakistan is in the midst of a regulatory overhaul of its utilities sector, which analysts say will benefit Hubco's business in the long run. Third, at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 4.4, according to Jehangir Siddiqui, it trades at a significant discount to the Karachi market” Pakistan government had never honored the contract from day 1 of Hub operation until WAT started, and US rescheduled Pakistani debt, and Britain tagged along with some moral support. Hub has many international institutional shareholders, controlled by International Power of Britain, and owes 49 international banks a bundle of money. The business model of Hub is simple: the US deploys its troops, the Japanese pumps in its money, Russia offers its verbal support, China chucks in its acquiescence, Britain proffers its shoulder, India shouts threats, Iran does whatever, Hub Power gets paid its contractual tariff rate for power generation, and a Trini in Hong Kong can thus fund more platinum watches. What do I know about Pakistan? Nothing UNQUOTE (b) I spoke to my friend who instigated this: Message 17205256 QUOTE March 16th, 2002 I have decided to buy into the real estate syndicate scheme I spoke about yesterday, buying up a basket of ground level shops in the busiest, and therefore unaffected, shopping district in Hong Kong surrounding a planned up-market two city block development of hotel, office, and shopping center, with lots of parking (precious HK commodity). The complex should be up in 24 months (HK builds really amazingly fast) and mature within 12 months upon completion. The fund will be leverage 1:1, totaling USD 40 mm. The funds will be committed and drawn upon as needed, with the first 25% down. UNQUOTE The syndicate has just purchased more retail space, including a premise currently leased out to a brothel, a possibly recession-proof tenant. My friend is (a) excited about the values we have picked up, and (b) the values that will yet materialize. Chugs, Jay