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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tekboy who wrote (52742)10/4/2002 12:28:18 PM
From: chaz  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 54805
 
tb...

Glad to see you baaack! I read Norris' piece, but what stuck was the following:

The Nifty Fifty growth stocks — which some had thought could be bought at any price because their outlook was so good — did not do well.

I have been wondering if the Gorilla Game remains valid going forward. On the one hand, I do expect that the strongest companies on the other side will benefit first. On the other, I doubt the market ever again permit single companies to control particular markets. Gorillas were always few in number, I think there'll be even fewer going forward.

As to Norris' notion that the Bear may ready to hibernate, IMO he's six to nine months early. Valuations are still too high, companies have little confidence in their own forward earnings, analysts are talking things up again (adding to my mistrust). No real market reforms are in place in spite of all the misdeeds uncovered, the only real bright spot being S&P's press for "core earnings" reporting.

IMO, the consumer will lead us out of this. Wages, work hours have been increasing for the 94+% of us still with jobs...a positive sign for productivity gains. Revenue gains based on increased market share (like Dell) are misleading because they're at the expense of competitors, not due to increased market activity.

chaz