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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (49369)	10/4/2002 12:54:00 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hawk - I wonder if maybe our plan is for instituting coercive inspections unilaterally, and soon. It would fit with the buildup we've already seen, and the timetable we seem to be following. It's also consistent with the administration's recent rhetoric and Bush's speech at the UN. It would not require a declaration of war, either. War would be the next step, if Saddam resisted. Just a thought.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (49369)	10/4/2002 9:49:03 PM
From: BCherry168	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Inspection regime. I do not believe that Saddam will allow a stronger inspection regime, supported by armed forces of the US and Britain. This is what it will take to avoid an invasion, IMHO. If he does, then that will be fine. But short of that, Bush and Blair will go to war. And should. It will be late December or early January before the US can get four carriers on station in the ME. The war will not start before then. (We also need to keep a carrier on station near Taiwan, with another in reserve, to keep the Chinese from creating problems.) My guess is that when Congress passes the resolution, they will begin calling up reserve and national guard forces. The armored forces of the guard will probably need a couple of months, at least, for training. I predict that air action will start in early January, then ground action by large forces perhaps in early February. I doubt if there will be more than 100,000 troops, but perhaps there will be more. Special Forces are already there, and making themselves useful, I believe. Don't know for sure, but this seems like a scenario that will work. We will see. "If the inspections are truly as intrusive as the US desires (and I believe we will place extensive pressure for that to be the case), it will heavily demoralize Saddam's support within Iraq, and probably lead to an internal revolt.".....Hawk