Yeah, but Ray's accusation is false. Mine isn't. :-)
Speaking of which:
Remember CA used to be Reagan Country. Now the most unpopular governor in the US, a Democrat, is a shoe-in for re-election. Wha hoppin?
bayarea.com
History may best remember this campaign for how Davis spent
millions on a pre-emptive strike against former Los Angeles Mayor
Richard Riordan, a wealthy moderate who had been recruited by the
Bush administration and had the crossover appeal to threaten
Davis. The governor's hardball tactics now look smarter than ever. A
recent Field Poll suggested that Riordan would be beating Davis by
15 points. As Democrats like to joke, ``The Republicans never miss
an opportunity to miss an opportunity.''
``If Davis had not done what he did . . . I think Dick Riordan would
be the nominee and now we'd be talking about the resurgence of
the moderate wing'' of the GOP, said Tom Campbell, the last
Republican to represent the Bay Area in Congress and the current
dean of the University of California-Berkeley's Haas School of
Business.
Campbell, who in 2000 lost a long-shot bid to unseat Sen. Dianne
Feinstein, is an example of the sort of moderate Republican
frustrated by the party's inability to get along with itself. A
supporter of abortion rights, Campbell speaks of an ``intolerance''
within the GOP's activist right wing, the constituency that helped lift
Simon over Riordan and has also given the cold shoulder to
Republicans such as himself.
The whole article:
Posted on Sun, Oct. 06, 2002
California governor's race shows why state
Republicans are weaker than ever
By Scott Harris
Here in original Reagan country, the Grand Old Party finds itself
approaching Election Day with bravado and dread. Setting sail into
a gathering storm, Republicans find hope in polls that show just
how unpopular Democratic Gov. Gray Davis is as he prepares to face
off with Republican nominee Bill Simon. But otherwise, it's all
darkness and foreboding.
``California has one of the most unpopular incumbent governors in
the country, and the Republican nominee is still running behind,''
said Allan Hoffenblum, a Republican strategist since the late 1960s.
Prospects are so grim that an unprecedented Democratic sweep of
statewide offices isn't out of the question. Many Republicans agree
that the party is in deep trouble in California, and ``there's an
enormous amount of outreach and soul-searching,'' said
Hoffenblum. Some Republicans, eyeing 2006, seriously wonder
whether Arnold Schwarzenegger, now sponsoring an initiative to
pump up after-school programs, might be the superhero they need.
All of which raises the question of just why California's Republican
Party is such a basket case. Nationwide, these are good times for
the GOP, united behind President Bush and setting the agenda from
the White House and House of Representatives. On Election Day,
the Democrats may lose their slim hold on the Senate.
The Golden State, in contrast, looks ever more like the bulwark of
the so-called Left Coast. Yet it's been only four years since the
Democrat domination here took hold. After controlling the
governorship for 16 years, the GOP in 1998 managed to win only
two statewide seats. It's been downhill since then, as Republicans
spent more energy fighting among themselves than with
Democrats.
The Republican decline in California can be traced to 1994, when
then-Gov. Pete Wilson, widely considered a moderate, alienated the
state's growing Latino and immigrant constituencies by promoting
Proposition 187, a measure that sought to deny public services,
including education, to illegal immigrants and their children. It won
59 to 41 percent, but the victory was pyrrhic. The measure was
judged unconstitutional and the backlash was immediate and
strong: In 1996, when Democrats regained control of the state
Legislature, Latino support for Republican candidates dropped from
the 30 to 40 percent range to less than 10 percent.
This sent the GOP reeling. But instead of doing damage control,
California Republicans have largely damaged one another. To the
dismay of moderates, the party's activist conservatives, a potent
force in primaries where turnout is low, propelled consecutive
gubernatorial candidates -- Dan Lungren and now Simon -- whose
views on abortion, health care and the environment lack broad
appeal in a state where voters tend to be more liberal on such
issues.
Series of landslides
Davis trounced Lungren in 1998 by 20 percentage points, and the
2000 political season wasn't any better for Republicans. A
corruption scandal forced the resignation of Insurance
Commissioner Charles Quackenbush, leaving Secretary of State Bill
Jones as the GOP's lone incumbent in statewide office. While many
Republicans believed that Bush -- personable, bilingual, a
``compassionate conservative'' -- had a fighting chance in
California, he got drubbed by more than a million votes, double Al
Gore's margin in the popular vote nationwide. State Democrats then
pressed their advantage last year by redistricting in their favor.
Unless Simon pulls off a shocker, Republicans may rue the 2002
election as the big one that got away. Talk to enough Republicans
and you will hear plenty of politely hopeful analysis, but feel a
palpable sense of frustration. California's economy is hurting, the
state's budget deficit is growing, Davis is vulnerable -- and what did
the GOP do? Nominate a candidate who may simply be too
conservative and inexperienced to win. And that was before the
damaging headlines about Simon's dubious business dealings.
History may best remember this campaign for how Davis spent
millions on a pre-emptive strike against former Los Angeles Mayor
Richard Riordan, a wealthy moderate who had been recruited by the
Bush administration and had the crossover appeal to threaten
Davis. The governor's hardball tactics now look smarter than ever. A
recent Field Poll suggested that Riordan would be beating Davis by
15 points. As Democrats like to joke, ``The Republicans never miss
an opportunity to miss an opportunity.''
``If Davis had not done what he did . . . I think Dick Riordan would
be the nominee and now we'd be talking about the resurgence of
the moderate wing'' of the GOP, said Tom Campbell, the last
Republican to represent the Bay Area in Congress and the current
dean of the University of California-Berkeley's Haas School of
Business.
Campbell, who in 2000 lost a long-shot bid to unseat Sen. Dianne
Feinstein, is an example of the sort of moderate Republican
frustrated by the party's inability to get along with itself. A
supporter of abortion rights, Campbell speaks of an ``intolerance''
within the GOP's activist right wing, the constituency that helped lift
Simon over Riordan and has also given the cold shoulder to
Republicans such as himself.
Criticism of moderates
In response, Richard Mountjoy, president of the conservative
California Republican Assembly, dismisses Campbell and Riordan as
``Democrats.''
Abortion is the GOP's great wedge issue. One potent ad Davis ran
against Riordan showed an old video clip of the Republican likening
abortion to murder. Bruce Cain, a UC-Berkeley political-science
professor, said the ad was designed to show that Riordan was out
of step with California -- and succeeded beyond Davis strategist
Garry South's wildest dreams. As the former mayor labored to
explain his comments and shore up his moderate credentials, wary
conservatives flocked to Simon's cause.
The episode illustrates why Campbell says California GOP members
need to learn to agree to disagree for the sake of the broader
agenda. After all, it was Reagan, beloved by conservatives, who
signed one of the nation's most liberal abortion bills before the
Supreme Court's ruling in Roe vs. Wade. Yet Mountjoy insists most
Californians are fundamentally conservative and will prove it by
electing Simon.
California's Republican heritage is both proud and checkered,
producing such momentous figures as Chief Justice Earl Warren and
presidents Nixon and Reagan. Before Davis' election, the Golden
State had only three other Democratic governors in the 20th
century. The GOP also claims ownership of Proposition 13, the 1978
initiative that ignited a nationwide tax revolt. Republicans feasted
on that success for two decades.
Unfortunately for the GOP, campaigns are now lost because of
Proposition 187, which now seems like a fulcrum between the
California of yesterday and today. From the 1960s to the '80s, many
``Reagan Democrats'' were blue-collar white men who worked in
factory jobs that no longer exist or were moved out of state. The
huge influx of immigrants made many recession-racked Californians
nervous, and inspired the polarizing 1994 ballot measure. Now it's
the anti-Proposition 187 side that has gained political leverage,
benefiting Democrats and Latino pols such as Lt. Gov. Cruz
Bustamante.
Although some GOP activists say the anti-immigrant label is starting
to fade among Latinos and Asians, the greater challenge may be
closing a ``gender gap'' that has opened up during the past few
decades. The Democratic Party claims a much greater allegiance
from two generations of women influenced by the feminist
movement and their experiences in the workplace.
Buzzwords chart an interesting history. The 1992 election, only 16
years after the major parties appealed equally to women, was
dubbed ``the year of the woman'' as many female pols won
election. California, tellingly, became the first state to have two
female senators when Barbara Boxer was elected to join Feinstein.
Two years later, ``angry white males'' put Newt Gingrich-led
Republicans in control of the House of Representatives and backed
Proposition 187.
But ever since, ``we talk about the classic `soccer moms' '' as the
pivotal voters, said Barbara O'Connor, professor of political
communications at Sacramento State University.
Looking for a sweep
Now Democrats have their first real chance to sweep statewide
office, repeating the Republicans' feat in the great landslide of 1946.
A Simon defeat would force the California GOP to become more
disciplined and pragmatic, many analysts say, and trigger a
shake-up of the party's leadership. Shawn Steel, the California GOP
chairman, has lost clout because of clashes with Gerald Parsky, a
Southern California venture capitalist who is the Bush
administration's point man. Bush has offered only arm's-length
support for Simon. The president has visited California for Simon
fundraisers, but avoided appearing with the candidate after a jury
handed down a fraud verdict against a company owned by the
Simon family. Although the verdict has been reversed, the taint has
not fully faded.
Down the road, Republicans see some hopeful signs. Polls show
that President Bush has become more popular since the Sept. 11
attacks, particularly among Latinos. Moreover, the party's problem
with women, Latinos and immigrants is becoming conventional
wisdom. ``There are a lot of Republicans who know that,
understand it and are working hard to change it,'' said Hoffenblum.
``It requires leadership. But where does that leadership come
from?''
Could the answer be found at JoinArnold.com? Arnold
Schwarzenegger, the bodybuilder-turned-actor now sponsoring
Proposition 49, a measure to fund after-school programs, has
signaled he may want to run for office. While it's easy to joke about
Conan the Republican or Citizen Ah-nold, Democrats used to scoff at
Reagan, too.
Arnold possesses first-name fame and a fortune built as a self-made
success. A 60-second ad for Proposition 49 shows the Austrian
immigrant inside his office decorated with Old Glory, the state flag,
and busts of Reagan and President John F. Kennedy. By virtue of his
marriage to Maria Shriver, Schwarzenegger is a Kennedy in-law, if
not Kennedyesque. In California, some say, personality often
trumps partisanship.
And in his stump speeches for Proposition 49, Arnold is a crowd
pleaser, often closing with a signature line: ``I'll be back.''
SCOTT HARRIS is a freelance writer based in San Jose. He was
senior political writer for the Industry Standard, and a columnist for
the Los Angeles Times. He wrote this article for Perspective. |
