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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (49726)	10/6/2002 1:53:01 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 281500

Re "The Silver Bullet" This reminds of the "pragmatic" approach that Pollack discusses in his book. I favor the "reconstruction" approach, which would require US troops to initially be present in large numbers to insure "domestic tranquility" and the territorial integrity of Iraq.

To: Ilaine who wrote (49726)	10/7/2002 9:08:45 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

"Siver Bullet" redux: CB there may be more to this story than I was willing to admit (see Telegraph article below). If the defections of Saddam's own inner circle (etc. etc.) are imminent then the US may not in fact require a 250K + invasion force. Still, I think it would be better for the US to occupy key cities and throw out most of the top Baathist and of course completely "retire" all senior SSO, Mukhbarat, and Special Republican Guard leadership - at least. I had intended to stay offline for a while, and await developments, but this was just to juicy to not post. :o} Saddam's inner circle is defecting, say Iraqi exiles By Anton La Guardia, Diplomatic Editor (Filed: 07/10/2002) telegraph.co.uk Saddam Hussein's power base is coming under extreme pressure, with members of his inner circle defecting to the opposition or making discreet offers of peace in the hope of being spared retribution if the Baghdad dictator is toppled, according to Iraqi exiles. Ayad al-Awi, the head of the opposition Iraqi National Accord, said his group in recent weeks had received senior defectors from the Iraqi security services, which form the regime's nerve centre. At the same time Kurdish groups said they had received secret approaches from military commanders offering to turn their weapons on Saddam when the war began. They said members of the al-Majid clan, the pillar of Saddam's tribal power base, had made contact to seek assurances about their fate. These signs of fragmentation indicate for the first time that Saddam's senior lieutenants believe that the United States and Britain are serious about toppling him. The reports will raise the hopes of British officials who have long maintained that a credible threat of overwhelming force to bring down Saddam's regime could destroy his reign of fear and prompt senior lieutenants to seize power and avert a devastating war. The American intelligence community harbours similar hopes. One ex-CIA senior officer told the Washington Post yesterday: "Someone will take action and cause it to happen." American officials, including Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, have recently spoken of Iraqis eliminating Saddam themselves, either through assassination or by sending him into exile. Last week, Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said: "The cost of a one-way ticket is substantially less than [the cost of war]. The cost of one bullet, if the Iraqi people take it on themselves, is substantially less than that." Exiled Iraqis have been reporting for weeks that members of the regime have been trying to build relations with the opposition. Ghassan Attiyeh, a writer on Iraq, said: "This is the kind of thing I would expect. "For example, I just found a message on my answering machine from somebody telling me he had seen lorries moving weapons into houses in a certain area of Baghdad." Mr al-Awi said the INA, a group formed by former members of the ruling Ba'ath party, had seen a surge of interest from senior members of the regime. "We have been getting approaches for the past two or three months, but the trend is increasing. Those contacting us come from Saddam's inner circle. "Some have defected, while others have been asked to stay to help us from inside. We cannot say much about the defectors at the moment, but some may speak after they have been debriefed. "Things are happening inside the regime that will hopefully mean we can get rid of this evil regime. You can speak of Saddam in the past tense." A Kurdish source said members of Saddam's al-Majid clan had been in contact with Iraqi opposition groups, as well as Western governments.