Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (4749)	10/6/2002 6:50:41 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207821

HI Kirk, Good questions. I'm no guru - but here is what I expect. I expect a retest to touch and violate new lows - marginally. These new lows will shake out weak holders as intended - but relative to past revisits of these price levels - I think sellers will diminish and low priced accumulators will step in. If watching Cohu is anything like a normal stock, light volume and new lows has been met by very unemotional accumulation. At each 10 cent increment of lower prices, a 5000 share bid has been eroded away as somebody is in an obvious accumulation pattern. These patterns are methodical attempts at averaging down by either well heeled investors or most likely institutional buying. So a new low, if other stocks are similar, will shake out small weak holders and feed into the accumulation plans of well capitalized smart buyers. Notice how VIX and S&P are retesting price levels with lower levels of ADX. I think it is the opposite of a failed top - pretty soon the purchasing power goes away and new highs are met with weaker stochastics and less momentum in general.Sooner or later the weight of the advance collapses the top. Well shorts are the same cept opposite.Sooner or later the new low doesn't have fear levels equal to the quick spike down that created the new low before.The retest does one thing however - it takes longer. The final bottom is full of false startups and failed breakouts.This bear market will give the smart shorts an opportunity to cover.They will be stingy in covering and want the exact low just like we wanted the exact top when selling. With each weaker (but longer new low) the shorts are covering to a little greater degree each failed crash(just like smart longs were distributing at the top). I think the VIX 150 gurus are so full of it, I put them in the same class as those who thought Dow 16000 was only 30-45 off back in March of 2000. They are the same loud mouths guessing at the obvious momentum continuation.They will be the panicing lemms at the reversal of the bottom.<VBG> I think this market has more E-wavers with 20/20 vision than I've ever seen (all of them short- that tells you something). I'll play it safe here and pay cash for stocks that are at the best values I've seen for years.I'm no timer or daytrader - but I do play the extremes. To catch the middle 60% of these huge moves may take years - but if you are persistent and patient it will make you rich. There are way too many people short this market, and in my very simple model of stock investing you buy the bottoms and you short the tops.There seems to be a whole lot more brilliant shorters down here than there were at Dow 13000?! So where are all these brilliant guru's coming from when they're shorting 4-6 year lows.I guess they just found the Holy Grail and can now all of a sudden see out 10 years and thousands of points. NAHHHH ,not with my money. GZ is short - but he only plays the S&P with tight stop losses and he can turn on the edge of a dime.ggg Some day I'm gonna get smart and do it his way.I've marveled at his nimbleness and carefree attitude. I believe it is a great example for us to achieve in our personal lives. Guess I better quit sucking up to him - I've got to go find 15.00 and buy his new book.gg ( that's 1 1/2 shares of Cohu.ggg I believe we're on ,at,or near the bottom. Your charts suggest this to be the case.IMHO Did you catch that Barrett from Intel said the computer market will turn in early 03.Q1 I suspect, as Q2 is historically weak, and he didn't say mid to late 03. I'm thinking wireless will carry us out of this tech slump - it is exploding and to use it requires having the highend computers/laptops and broadband.It will differentiate the market enough that forces a replacement cycle.We've become data junkies and we now want it wireless and mobile(on the go). These new applications are here now and very inexpensive relative to what the first computer cost.So I think it will be adopted relatively quickly by both business and individuals.These new applications will lead us out into a less robust recovery.If we just quit fearing fear itself - we'll turn a very good corner, that will allow reasonable valuations vs fear evaluations. JMHO Bob