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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jeff who wrote (9544)10/6/2002 12:45:17 PM
From: orkrious  Respond to of 30712
 
great post, jeff



To: Jeff who wrote (9544)10/6/2002 12:46:40 PM
From: exp  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 30712
 
Jeff, Justa, Ajtj: FYI:

Another interesting book:
Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information:
Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding

search.barnesandnoble.com

" ... models that demonstrate how asymmetric information
affects asset prices and traders' information, which
provide a theoretical explanation for technical analysis
and illustrate why some investors "chase the trend."

The reader is then introduced to herding models and
informational cascades, which can arise in a setting where
agents' decision-making is sequential. The insights
derived from herding models are used to provide rational
explanations for stock market crashes
... "

Comment: Jeff, math/finance types are also trying to figure out what's going on here ...



To: Jeff who wrote (9544)10/6/2002 1:13:19 PM
From: pogbull  Respond to of 30712
 
that type thinking lead to the huge bubble as folks just kept piling in because everybody was doing it....it was the "in" thing to do......if you weren't in the market buying...you were stupid and missing out....

Sounds like the real estate market right now...



To: Jeff who wrote (9544)10/6/2002 3:31:29 PM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 30712
 
Jeff, you mention the final most devastating phase of the bear as being the drop from 1250-700, but I believe the phase that will do the most damage and take people out completely will be the re-test of the ramp we get out of a low in the spring, optimally in the low 700 range.

The ramp out of that will get everyone excited that the bottom is in, and the re-test will take many people down below their lowest levels of the year.