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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ig who wrote (9612)	10/6/2002 11:55:12 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

IG, This is a spirited debate you and Jeff are having and I am enjoying it immensely. Do you think the fact that we are in a bear market has anything to do with the fact that the last two times the signal presented itself, the implied result did not occur? tia

To: ig who wrote (9612)	10/7/2002 12:01:31 AM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

1998 - isn't that the year that the Naz Comp closed at 1492 for the Columbus Day weekend? More seriously, why do you believe that this Divergence has the same strength in the waning aftermath of a bubble decline as it did for a bear correction within a secular bull? lurqer

To: ig who wrote (9612)	10/7/2002 12:03:38 AM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

We almost had one on 9/24 and again on 9/30. I played them both but they didn't pan out, of course they didn't...the one in 98 worked because it was a bull market..... this is a bear market and downward pierces are deadly....we have proved that 100% to be a fact.....because we called every pierce and sucker run since may..... at least you didn't tell me the retrace was toast this time...<ggg> don't worry....i'll let everybody know when the retrace fails....<gg>

To: ig who wrote (9612)	10/7/2002 3:39:19 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

<<Sure you can. A MACD Divergence is one of the strongest signals in all of Technical Analysis. Take a look at the October 1998 low of the Nasdaq. Price broke below very serious support near 1465, then rallied like a bat out of hell for the next year-and a-half:>> I still contend that when COMPX broke 1450 in June 2002 we got confirmation the COMPX had entered into a total reversal, it then TA wise got the signal loud and clear; this is not a correction in a Secular Bull, but it is now officially a Secular Bear and that event actually CHANGES TA RULES. Your MACD divergence signal worked in a Bull market, it won't work in a bear market, except in short term phases. But as i got the impression;however,perhaps, misguided, that you are only using this for a shorterm trade, i don't know why you need worry about, will this be 3months or 18months of rally time; when it comes? Max p.s. i was for a Secular Bear long before June,2002; but nonetheless, the 1450 in June finally got diehard Bullside-TAers that were seeing this as a cyclical bear within a Secular Bull market; to throw in the towel and concede.