Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (148511)	10/7/2002 6:07:13 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 164684

Bush's policies have been expantionary (except for a couple mistakes like the steel tariff). The Fed is pumping, too. One problem we have was going from President Goodfeel to President Punchtheirlightsout. LOL! Larry Kudlow says the money supply is too tight. And there is no excuse for sitting on that investor tax package, maybe its just symbolic but something needs to be done.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (148511)	10/8/2002 2:03:52 AM
From: damniseedemons	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>"Investors have to do their part, too. Investors are more concerned with what other investors are doing, and less focused on fundamentals. This market is going down now solely because it's going down." perhaps, but it was exactly the reverse during the late 90s. you didn't complain then-- you went right along with the greater-fool momentum, as did i. nothing wrong with momentum investing/trading on the downside either. you used to be great at psychological/momentum/TA investing but have completely abandoned and ignored them. it is never too late to go back to what you're best at. i really don't know if the market is disconnected from the fundamentals and the decline is now purely momentum/redemption-driven. that kind of argument could have easily been made last year too. i also really don't know when, during the bull market, we went into bubble territory where the fundamentals became disconnected. that would be a good exercise, as it could help shed some light on where we are in the life of this bear market. and perhaps the fundamentals of many companies really do stink. i STILL see a lot of people looking at forward P/E ratios and saying, "wow, BRCD (or fill in the blank) is cheap." sure it is, until/unless they miss those earnings estimates, which is what the market is anticipating and began anticipating 2.5 years ago. this would be a job for me, something i'm good at, but hey nobody's paying me to do the work and i'm admittedly spending more free time than i should be having fun in my new life with the weather and women of LA. i believe that pricing is another shoe in tech that hasn't fully dropped yet. pricing has been weak due to lack of demand, but i think it will get worse due to the a lack of (and plateau) in innovation, largely caused by customers not demanding innovative new products. this invites more and more competition/cloners, as well as low-end product moving higher up the chain. this all equates to pricing pressure. the last thing i'll add is that even if the market stops going down, it doesn't mean it starts going up. a lot of damage has been done which is not yet fully realized. it could consolidate for months or years. not that i have any idea what will happen.... so good luck. i'm still content to stand on the sidelines waiting it out and only make a few select short-term trades occasionally when i feel sure about stuff. the most amazing thing to me about the whole bear market is that so many people don't really have a sense of certainty or conviction in their investments, yet they stay in the game. investing without conviction, only hope and wishful thinking, is worse than gambling. there is nothing wrong with sitting out!!! you might, just might, miss out on making some money, but to me it is better to not make money than to lose money.