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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Techplayer who wrote (5741)10/8/2002 9:44:30 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 57110
 
So, gonna walk through something here, tell me if it makes sense....

In this SPX chart, I have a parallel channel that is defined by the tops and then have another trendline that is defined by the bottoms.

stockcharts.com[r,a]daclyyay[d20000201,20021004][pb50!b200!f][vc60][ill14!la12,26,9][J6581161,Y]&pref=G

I think that I made a mistake in drawing the channel based on the tops. Many people have asserted that 9/11 pushed the market down out of its normal bottom target. I believe now that all that it did was to bring the bottom target in by a few days or weeks, *but* what it did is throw the market out of whack on the upside and the duration of the top. I have heard people on CNBC and SI talking about this current decline as a simple retest of the July lows. And when you look at the chart, this decline is happening very soon after the July lows. I believe that the reason for that is that the July lows were meant to happen in April and that the current lows are just happening when they were supposed to in the first place. (see yellow lines)

stockcharts.com[g,a]dhclynay[d19950101,20021008][pb50!b200][iub14!la12,26,9][j6506170,y]&listNum=1

I wonder if any of the ewavers are factoring something like this into their analysis. Most seem to be having a hard time sticking with a count, maybe this is why....

With this, I am again convinced that, if we get a bounce, it is just in preparation of new lows.