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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (14763)	10/9/2002 4:35:20 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

lurqer ... I do not take issue with what David Nichols has to say about the COT and the commercials and SP futures specifically ... ... however ... (1) the commercials are often early (sometimes very early) ... (2) I would feel a lot safer being bullish on equites in general when the commercials get net long (maybe when they get significantly net long) ... just my personal opinion ... ... some interesting history ... *09/25/98 SP = 1051.00* ... followed by large and extended SP rally Commercials = net long +34,491 contracts *10/22/99 SP = 1307.20* ... followed by large SP rally Commercials = net long +38,817 contracts *03/09/01 SP = 1244.10* ... followed by large rally Commercials = net long -111,956 contracts *09/07/01 SP = 1083.30* ... followed by 09/11/01 and 09/24/01 SP cycle low 939.00 ... and then large rally Commercials = net long -79,987 contracts *04/05/02 SP = 1125.40* ... followed by large SP drop ... Commercials = net long -93,043 contracts *09/27/02 SP = 825.30* ... followed by ????? Commercials = net long -17,385 contracts assuming I copied the above data from my Genesis/GFDS charts correctly *... in the interests of some disclosure ...* I own DEC and MAR SP puts right now, and have bought, held and sold SP puts, with considerable success since July, 2000 ... no predictions for the future ... <g> ... I think the quick change in direction by the commercials on the SP is bullish ... but bullish right now ... ??? Ken Wilson

To: lurqer who wrote (14763)	10/10/2002 12:09:33 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Thanks for the post. COT turning bullish, in addition to the Bullish NYSE Members as their reported net buying activity picked back up again last week (2 weeks delayed basis) combined with public foaming at the mouth shorting with increased veracity. Fosback was wrong about 1974 in stating we had 44 out of 47 consecutive weeks of net member buying. This is absolutely NOT TRUE. We had 39 out of 47 weeks of net buying during the 74 Bear time period. For 2002, since Feb 15, not including two week lag we have had 26 out of 32 weeks of net buying so we are right on track (2 week delayed basis). Moreover, of the 6 weeks of more selling than buying this year since Feb 15, the highest week of net selling was a paltry 23.7 Million. On a percentage basis, this is peanuts compared to 2 of those 8 weeks of significant net selling in 1974. Most importantly, in the most stringent test of bullishness, we have had 14 out of the last 32 weeks of the public shorting above the Members for 2002. How many times did the public short above the Members in 1974? ZERO. ZILCH. And just as the market hit 12 year lows in 1974, so too today the market rhymes in its own way as we have cut that in half and recently hit 6 year lows in 2002. Certainly not an exact 1974 redux replica, but then again when is it ever? Best Regards, J.T.