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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (14265)	10/10/2002 1:41:40 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

THe FCC has moved to block the DirecTV/Echostar merger. Great news for TiVo.

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (14265)	10/10/2002 3:23:50 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

washingtonpost.com

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (14265)	10/10/2002 5:00:28 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

biz.yahoo.com

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (14265)	10/13/2002 8:26:20 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

from the toronto star...amzn needs to get over 20... Dot-com bull market just around the corner By Bill Carrigan Early last week many of the major world indices traded down to their 1997 price peaks. That is quite a setback because the 1997 price peak was two bear markets ago. In other words, if you bought into a diversified equity mutual fund or index one year before the Asian Currency crisis of 1998, your returns are about zero. This can be frustrating when you see other asset classes such as bonds and real estate generating positive returns over the same time period. The never-ending stream of earnings disappointments, accounting scams, fallen corporate icons and war jitters can eventually send the most patient of investors over the edge. It is during these times that some investors capitulate and scream at their advisers to "sell it all at any price, cut me a cheque, close my account and don't even THINK of changing my mind." What is left of the money will probably go into a new car, or into the current hot real estate market. The real estate and equity stock markets do share one common theme. Either one of these investments can be a good investment some of the time and a bad investment some of the time. That new vacation property or income property won't go to zero like some stocks can, but they can have poor liquidity to go along with those furnace and roof repairs. Stocks, on the other hand, are portable and liquid. Alas, there is no perfect investment, if there was, I am sure we all would be pursuing it. This shift of capital to and from hard assets such as real estate and soft assets such as stocks and bonds has been going on for generations. The last realty top in the late 1980s was followed by a booming stock market through the 1990s. Sometimes investors will seek out a "hybrid" investment. That would be an investment that offers the low maintenance and liquidity of a stock and yet is backed by a hard asset such as gold, oil or real estate. This is partially the reason for the strong performance of the energy stocks, the realty stocks and their related energy and realty trusts. I understand that when it comes to real estate, location is everything. Our chart this week is that of the weekly closes of two important real estate stocks, Amazon.Com Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. You see, both of these corporations share the "Manhattan Island" of the Internet's cyberspace. Consider that in the last five years, online sales have grown in spite of the great dot-com meltdown of 2000-2002. According to Massachusetts-based Forrester Research, online shopping households grew from 5 million to 36 million, and online sales have jumped from $2.4 billion to $72 billion (U.S.). Hard assets indeed! An experienced technical analyst will always look for market leadership at an important market juncture, or turning point. If we are to begin a new bull market we need to know that the survivors of the new economy meltdown will go on to greatness and thus validate Internet commerce and the various support industries. The charts of Amazon and Yahoo suggest that we are at the beginning of a new bull market in the dot-com complex. This new advance should be the "money" advance. Investors can now observe some important dot-com business models evolve into mature companies that will generate cash for their shareholders. Note the September, 2001, lows of both charts and note the subsequent advances through to early 2002. The shares of both companies then corrected downward but stopped short of following the major indices to new lows. Currently Amazon is displaying greater strength relative to Yahoo because it is trading above its July, 2002, low. The only remaining obstacle for Amazon is for the price to overcome the prior $20 (U.S.) peak posted on May 15, 2002. Watch for it, because that event will impact on the entire dot-com technology space.