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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (50847)10/10/2002 1:00:51 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
SFD,

This exchange between you and Nadine is very helpful. Thanks for the effort.



To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (50847)10/10/2002 1:55:03 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Respond to of 281500
 
It was not for the British to decide borders of countries in the ME, anymore than it was for any colonial power nor anybody else - that decision belongs to the people living in those territories.

That's as may be, but the Ottomans were gone and the local people hadn't ruled themselves in 400 years. Some replacement rule had to be set up pronto, and the Great Powers were the only ones in a position to do it. If they hadn't, there would have been a long time of chaos. Maybe the end result would have been preferable, but maybe not.

First, to speak of the Palestinians "deserving" a state is a hoot - how did the Israelis "deserve" a state? Because Zionists came from another continent, invaded a land, displaced the inhabitants and engaged in terrorist "ethic cleansing"? The Palestinians deserve a state NO less than Israel does, if anything, they deserve it more.

The Zionists didn't invade, they bought land. They didn't displace, in fact their economic development brought a large Arab immigration into areas of Zionist settlement. The displacement came later, after the invasion of five Arab armies. You forgot that bit.

As for what the Zionists did to "deserve" a state -- I'll tell you, they built one. After all, what is a state? Why is France a state? Why isn't the Connecticut River Valley a state? Why isn't Kurdistan a state (it ought to be)?

A state is first of all an idea -- a group of people must conceive of themselves as separate and requiring autonomy. Second of all, a state is comprised of the human organizations that will run it. Material and military components follow after.

At the time I'm speaking of (pre WWII), the Arabs of Palestine (in this period the word "Palestinian" referred to the Zionists) were not a state at all. They had never been a state. They didn't have the idea of being a state(they considered themselves Southern Syrians), they didn't have the organization (and they had a Nazi leader, the Mufti, who assassinated his rivals, preventing attempts at organization), and they didn't have the materials.

So when the time came when the UN would have supported an Arab partition, the Mufti said no, the Arab world said no, and the Palestinians could do nothing, because they weren't a state, they had never been a state. They hadn't even moved to step one, the idea of being a state. That's why Palestinians society disintegrated and panicked in the war.

The Palestinians didn't even get the state idea until the 60's (unlike the Kurds, btw, who have been a separate people for millenia). So are they a state now? No, because you need step two, the organizations of a state. If Israel handed them the land tomorrow, who would run it? The most likely answer would be an internecine battle between two styles of mobs -- the PA and Hamas, neither of whom would be able to organize a state. The PA has already done disasterously. Hamas is actually a little more promising, if you assume they could have the sense to stop killing Israelis for a while, but the Islamist track record at running anything is dismal and the mostly secular Palestinians would soon turn against them.

Israel had a relatively moderate leader in Arafat (the street is far more radical than he), had a leader with the right stature, and he was secular.

This is the delusion of Oslo, which you seem to have bought wholesale (tell me, what did Mr. Moderate Arafat plan to do with the two tons of C4 on the Karne A?). Arafat is a career terrorist and a leader only as Al Capone was a 'leader'. He is il capo di tutti capi, as General Zinni called him. The reason that it is so hard to find a replacement for him is that the entire PA was constructed to support one-man dictatorship. The PA was never a government in any normal sense. When I first read that Hamas provided all the social services in Gaza, I knew that all hope for Oslo had been a delusion from the start.

Israel has to pull back to pre-67 100%

They sure got you convinced those borders are sacred, huh? Who convinced you that, say, the Jewish Quarter of the Old City deserves to be in Arab hands forever? (The Israelis begged King Hussein not to invade in 1967; if he had listened, the West Bank would still be Jordanian. And you get bet your booties we would have heard nothing about putting a Palestinian State in it)

You do realize the last talks came to an agreement over borders, but fell apart over "right of return"? You haven't mentioned that little sticking point. The final offer at Taba included land swaps, could have been presented to the Palestinians as 100% of the territories. It wasn't enough because Arafat could not say 'end of conflict' with Israel still standing.

If it weren't for the fact that any Israeli offer gets assumed as permanent by the rest of the world, I too would have favored Barak offering to redivide Jerusalem and go back to the 1967 borders, just to prove that a Palestinian state wasn't Arafat's real intention.

In short, your whole rationale is constructed around a false opinion of what the Palestinians want. If they wanted a state in the West Bank and Gaza they could have had it long since. If they want a state in the West Bank and Gaza now their current conduct is not moving them closer to it.

Like it or not, the Israelis are not going to accept a Palestinian Taliban preparing for invasion as a neighbor. Military occupation is not a permanent solution, but it sure looks better to the Israelis than permanent attacks from a terrorist state.

Also, realistically speaking, only the Americans can deliver a Palestinian state. Clinton got his face slapped by Arafat for devoting large political capital to the attempt. Bush came in with little inclination for trying, and Arafat's behavior finally drove Bush to dump him. Soon there will be a war in Iraq, and the Palestinians will dance on the rooftops again for Saddam Hussein, endearing themselves even less to President Bush and the Americans. The Palestinians had better seriously work at step 2, organizing themselves into a government, if they hope to get any American sympathy ever again. And that also means, stop bombing civilians.

Israel has a dark history here of monumental miscalculation

True, like many others, Israel did not see the ideological lunacy and hatred of Islamism coming.

Because one day, the Arabs will have the economic and military power many times greater than Israel.

Not if they keep going as they are, they won't. Current trends have them racing sub Saharan Africa for the bottom of the pack.

I visited Eastern Europe, where sad to say anti-Semitism is alive and well (I had lengthy and unfruitful arguments with garden variety anti-semites there, hate is hard to reform). But what horrified me, was what happened in the rest of Europe, particularly Scandinavia (my background). Europe, and especially Scandinavian countries used to have large reservoirs of affection and support for Israel. I was horrified by the fact that all of that seems to have evaporated, as Israel has gone from legitimacy and feeling of cultural and historical affinity to the image of a brutal oppressor who is creating tremendous problems in the world. Sadly, that is the correct impression

Interesting. And I keep wondering why Europeans sympathise so deeply with people who express their political aspirations by suicide bombing buses. I mean, there was no similar outflow of outrage over the Turk's (much harsher, actually) treatment of the Kurds? The Tibetans don't have much luck either. Just the poor poor Palestinians, whose oppression is considered so awful that it excuses all their behavior, and whose rights are so sacred that Israel's and America's attempts to negotiate a settlement are forgotten dismissively. Don't you think the anti-Semitism you've noticed could have something to do with the case?



To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (50847)10/10/2002 4:44:00 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
An excellent bit of rhetoric, but it unfortunately does not hold up to examination.

The issue is: the world recognizes Israel's pre-67 borders,

Do you really think that the Arab world recognizes pre-'67 borders? What about all the Arab "social justice" organizations such as Hamas and Hizbollah which have incorporated the destruction of Israel into their charters? They may be a small part of the "world" but a very important one, at least to Israel, since they act not with diplomacy and dialogue but with guns, rockets and suicide bombers.

The sad fact is that the events since the 1967 have been mismanaged by all involved parties. It is easy to say that there should not have been West Bank settlements but it is just as easy to say that suicide bombers are abominable. It is just as easy to say that Shabra and Shatila were execrable as it is to say that the Olympic Games terror was unjustified. Lots of blame to be shared by both sides.

I think that the only sane way to look at the problem is to look at lost opportunities.

The first intifada lead directly to Arafat in the Palestinian back yard, instead of in a villa in Tunis. After his return, Arafat arranged for the fun to really begin. This ultimately lead to Arafat's treachery at Oslo, which lead to Arafat's shameful volte face at Camp David under Clinton.

And here we are.

Looking back, do you really think that the Israelis were in bad faith at Camp David or Oslo? Who made the concessions and who refused them or did not live up to agreements?

Please.

Sure it was a mistake to go forward with West Bank settlements, but a mistake the Israelis tried to rectify to no avail. Can you say that Arafat and his band of goons, including Hamas and Hizbollah, have ever wavered from their stated goals to send the Israelis swimming?

I sincerely hope that the Israelis again make the same concessions they made at Camp David. Since all their efforts at peace with the Palestinians have been met with treachery, bombs and betrayal, it would not surprise me if we never see that stance again. And if we don't, the goose is cooked because there will be more bombs and more violence.

Tell me honestly, who do you blame post-Oslo?

Blame, though, is not the way to approach things. Both sides need to act pragmatically--and therein lies the heart of the problem. So far, the Israelis have acted pragmatically. The Palestinians, on the other hand, seem to have an almost genetic inability to act rationally or to follow rational leaders. They seem to prefer sticking their thumbs in Israel's eyes rather than negotiating in good faith.

I'm not optimistic since I think a hidden agenda--the destruction of Israel--is at play. The only way for Israel to survive and for the Palestinians to live decent lives, is for that agenda to be destroyed or to be seen as impossible to fulfill. It will take a rare lucid interval on the part of the Palestinian leadership and Palestinian citizens or the use of a sufficiently brutal amount of force on the part of Israel such that the agenda simply crumbles. Naturally, I prefer the first alternative, but so long as the Palestinians are lead by thugs, it is wishful thinking.



To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (50847)10/11/2002 12:59:49 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
I missed a discussion of Lebanon, which you seem to think should be an object lesson of why the Israelis should regard giving back disputed territory as a good idea

As seen in Lebanon, just giving up the stolen land can have good effects.

I don't know where you get your facts from. You seem to be under the impression that there is peace on the Israeli-Lebananese border. That could hardly be further from the truth. Let's look at your "good effects", shall we?

1. Israel unilaterally withdrew to the Blue Line in May 2000. The UN certifies the withdrawal.

2. Hizbullah's reputation shoots up across the Arab world as the only armed organization that has been able to force an unconditional Israeli withdrawal.

3. Since Hizbullah is a proxy force armed and controlled from Iran (the Iranians spend about $100 million a year on them), the tactic of fighting via such a guerilla/terrorist proxy force also gets a boost.

4. Sheikh Nasrallah, Hizbullah's leader, explains that Israel is really a "spiderweb society" -- looks big and strong, but can easily be swept aside if confronted. No guts.

5. Hizbullah shifts the locus of the dispute to Shabaa Farms (which is internationally recognized to be in Syria) and keeps fighting. Cross border shelling goes on intermittently.

6. Yasser Arafat, encouraged by Hizbullah's triumph, and hoping for similar Iranian patronage (which we know know he obtained), decides to adopt Hizbullah's methods and prepares the Tanzim militia in the summer of 2000. After a riot breaks out following Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount, Arafat orders his troops into the street and the second intifada begins.

7. Hizbullah uses its new-found reputation and influence over Bashar Assad to occupy the former Israeli security zone as its private fiefdom and build a couple of missile lines in Southern Lebanon, about 8,000 missiles so far. Open war nearly broke out last spring, but was temporarily averted when Colin Powell warned Bashar Assad of the consequences. Missile buildup continues, and both sides agree that open war is only a matter of time. Cross-border shelling continues.

8. Both sides read the lessons of Lebanon. Arafat concluded that he could gain territory without concessions by emulating Hizbullah's methods of terrorism/guerilla war. Israel concluded that withdrawal in the face of terrorism brings more terrorism, not peace. A prolonged low-level conflict continues.

Do you still call these "good effects"?