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Politics : The Tuesday Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (111)	10/14/2002 11:24:15 PM
From: ~digs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 302

String of Violence Highlights Core Problems in Battle Against Al Qaeda ; 14 October 2002 Summary- A string of attacks against Western citizens and assets in recent days suggests that al Qaeda has launched a new offensive. A surge in al Qaeda activity will force Washington and European governments to think seriously not only about how -- and whether -- to move forward with campaigns against both Iraq and al Qaeda, but also about strategies for dealing with intractable political problems that continue to fuel al Qaeda's activity. Analysis- Although al Qaeda has remained largely inactive in the year since Washington launched U.S. military action in Afghanistan, several recent incidents -- including the bombing of an oil tanker in Yemen, shootings involving U.S. Marines in Kuwait, a bombing that killed a U.S. Green Beret in the Philippines and the deadly Oct. 12 bombing in Bali -- point to a resurgence in the group's activity. If not directly responsible for the incidents, al Qaeda may be triggering disparate local groups to attack Western assets and citizens. The attacks highlight a worsening dilemma for governments on both sides of the Atlantic as to how to deal with a series of intractable problems that have fueled the threats of terrorism. These problems, connected to Washington's search for al Qaeda, first became evident a year ago. For instance, political and commercial sensitivities made Saudi Arabia -- the point of origin for many of the Sept. 11 attackers and Osama bin Laden himself -- sacrosanct from military retaliation. Nor could Washington muster the firepower that would be necessary to bring Indonesia, another country suspected of harboring radical Islamists, to heel. Unwilling or unable to address the toughest problems inherent in battling al Qaeda, the Bush administration tried to outflank the problem by focusing on Iraq -- making it an example of what could happen to those who did not cooperate in the fight against al Qaeda. The trouble is, Washington has gotten bogged down in its outflanking attempt, as the weeks of debate between the United States and its U.N. Security Council colleagues have shown. But the core problems associated with fighting al Qaeda have not resolved themselves and now are re-emerging into the foreground. Al Qaeda is retaking the initiative. Rather than choosing one campaign over another, coalition partners need to find a way to either move forward with -- or extricate themselves from -- wars against both al Qaeda and Iraq. Meanwhile, they also face increasing pressure to formulate strategies for dealing with the truly difficult issues -- such as the fragile political situations in Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere -- that Washington hoped to avoid by focusing on Iraq. The string of events forcing this shift has been well-publicized. It includes threats against U.S. Embassies in Southeast Asia; the Oct. 2 bombing in an open-air market in Zamboanga, Philippines; the Oct. 6 explosion aboard the French supertanker Limburg in a Yemeni port; two shooting incidents involving U.S. Marines off the coast of Kuwait and the Oct. 12 car bombing outside a nightclub in Bali which killed nearly 200 people, many of them Westerners. So far, most of the recent violence indicates at least indirect al Qaeda involvement. Indonesia's Defense Minister Matori Abdul Djalil blames al Qaeda and its allies or sympathizers for the Bali nightclub bombing, which killed more than 185. And the attack against the Limburg as it neared the Yemeni port al-Mukallah also has been linked to al Qaeda. The Aden-Abyan Army, a local group linked to bin Laden's network, claimed responsibility for the attack, which mimicked the October 2000 bombing of the USS Cole in Aden harbor. Elsewhere, political developments also pose potential threats. Islamist parties recently won by landslide votes in the Pakistani provinces of Baluchistan and the Northwest Frontier Province, where al Qaeda members are said to be in hiding. The anti-U.S. Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) won 45 seats in Parliament and thus took a majority in both provinces, where U.S. troops are concentrating their search for al Qaeda fighters who fled Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the government in Islamabad reportedly is considering building an alliance with the MMA. Such an alliance could have far-reaching implications for the U.S. anti-terrorism campaign in South Asia. Meanwhile, one of al Qaeda's top leaders is turning up the heat by sending messages via the Doha-based Al-Jazeera satellite television network. Last week, the station broadcast a message by al Qaeda's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahri, threatening more attacks against the United States and its allies. The day after the Zawahri tape aired, two gunmen shot at U.S. Marines as they took part in live-fire exercises on Failaka Island off the coast of Kuwait. One of the servicemen later died from his wounds, and the gunmen were killed on the spot. Although no evidence has surfaced to prove that the shootings were linked to Zawahri's message, the timing of the two incidents makes that a possibility. U.S. troops were fired upon during exercises in northern Kuwait again Oct. 14. As al Qaeda retakes the spotlight, the U.S. and European governments will be under renewed pressure to assure their constituencies that they are doing something to fight terrorism. Not only will threats against the global oil industry have business leaders up in arms, but the risks to the U.S. and European economies is also very real. Insurance premiums on oil tankers are growing, and the cost of doing business in the oil-rich Middle East is skyrocketing. Unable to prove that past strategies have effectively dismantled al Qaeda, the question will become: What do coalition governments plan to do now? In the United States, that question could hurt the Republican Party's performance in November's congressional elections and, more important, leave the Bush administration uncertain as to how to reply. stratfor.com